| भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक ने आज त्रैमासिक औद्योगिक परिदृश्य सर्वेक्षण (आइओएस) के 107वें दौर के परिणाम जारी किये। इस सर्वेक्षण में वर्ष 2024-25 की दूसरी तिमाही के लिए भारतीय विनिर्माण कंपनियों द्वारा कारोबार के परिवेश का गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन और वर्ष 2024-251 की तीसरी तिमाही के लिए उक्त कंपनियों की अपेक्षाओं के साथ-साथ आगामी दो तिमाहियों के लिए चयनित मापदंडों पर उनके परिदृश्य को समाहित किया गया है। जुलाई से सितंबर 2024 की अवधि के दौरान किए गए सर्वेक्षण2 के इस दौर में कुल 1,300 कंपनियों ने प्रत्युत्तर दिए । विशेष:
- क. दूसरी तिमाही (Q2) 2024-25 का मूल्यांकन
- निर्माताओं के मांग स्थितियों में दूसरी तिमाही : 2024-25 के दौरान वृद्धि के आकलन में पिछली तिमाही की तुलना में नरमी आई है, जो उनके उत्पादन, ऑर्डर बुक, क्षमता उपयोग, रोजगार और समग्र व्यवसायिक स्थिति के मापदंडों के आकलन में परिलक्षित होती है (सारणी - ए)।
- कच्चे माल की लागत, वित्तपोषण लागत और वेतन व्यय से दबाव कम होने का आकलन किया गया और, तदनुसार, बिक्री मूल्य और लाभ मार्जिन में वृद्धि में नरमी आई है।
- व्यवसाय मूल्यांकन सूचकांक (बीएआई) विस्तार क्षेत्र में रहा, लेकिन पिछली तिमाही के 110.8 के स्तर से घटकर 2024-25 की दूसरी तिमाही में 108.3 पर आ गया (चार्ट 1)।
- ख. तीसरी तिमाही (Q3) 2024-25 के लिए अपेक्षाएँ
- निर्माता 2024-25 की तीसरी तिमाही के दौरान भी मांग की स्थिति पर आशावाद बने रहें।
- वित्तपोषण की लागत और वेतन व्यय में वृद्धि होने की संभावना है। कच्चे माल की लागत से दबाव कम होने की उम्मीद है, और बिक्री मूल्य वृद्धि की गति जारी रह सकती है।
- व्यावसायिक अपेक्षा सूचकांक (बीईआई) पिछली तिमाही के स्तर 119.1 से बढ़कर 2024-25 की तीसरी तिमाही में 120.3 हो गया (चार्ट 1)।
- ग. 2024-25 की चौथी तिमाही और 2025-26 की पहली तिमाही के लिए प्रत्याशाएं
- निर्माताओं ने Q4:2024-25 और Q1:2025-26 के दौरान उत्पादन, ऑर्डर बुक, रोजगार, क्षमता उपयोग और समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति पर बेहतर उम्मीदे जारी की है (सारणी बी)।
- निर्माताओं के लिए इनपुट लागत दबाव जारी रहने की संभावना है, जो मजबूत मांग की स्थिति के पीछे मूल्य निर्धारण शक्ति और बिक्री कीमतों में वृद्धि को बनाए रखने की उम्मीद करते हैं।
| Table A: Summary of Net responses3 on Survey Parameters |
| (per cent) |
Parameters |
Assessment period |
Expectation period |
| Q1:2024-25 |
Q2:2024-25 |
Q2:2024-25 |
Q3:2024-25 |
| Production |
27.9 |
22.9 |
36.3 |
36.3 |
| Order Books |
25.6 |
19.5 |
35.2 |
33.3 |
| Pending Orders |
5.9 |
8.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
| Capacity Utilisation |
18.7 |
15.1 |
29.2 |
29.5 |
| Inventory of Raw Materials |
-5.9 |
-2.7 |
-8.3 |
-9.6 |
| Inventory of Finished Goods |
-5.5 |
-3.0 |
-7.7 |
-9.9 |
| Exports |
10.9 |
5.3 |
24.8 |
26.2 |
| Imports |
13.9 |
9.1 |
22.8 |
24.3 |
| Employment |
11.2 |
9.7 |
15.6 |
17.6 |
| Financial Situation (Overall) |
28.5 |
25.6 |
42.2 |
46.4 |
| Availability of Finance
(from internal accruals) |
23.0 |
18.1 |
31.8 |
32.1 |
| Availability of Finance
(from banks & other sources) |
20.0 |
14.4 |
27.2 |
26.7 |
| Availability of Finance
(from overseas, if applicable) |
9.8 |
5.1 |
16.9 |
20.2 |
| Cost of Raw Material |
-49.3 |
-38.7 |
-51.0 |
-47.6 |
| Cost of Finance |
-16.6 |
-10.2 |
-19.2 |
-20.2 |
| Salary/ Other Remuneration |
-41.7 |
-17.4 |
-26.1 |
-27.4 |
| Selling Price |
8.0 |
0.2 |
17.2 |
17.1 |
| Profit Margin |
-12.3 |
-10.2 |
9.9 |
13.6 |
| Overall Business Situation |
29.6 |
26.3 |
45.0 |
47.4 |
| Table B: Business Expectations on Select Parameters for extended period – Net response |
| (per cent) |
Parameters |
Round 106 |
Round 107 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
Q3:2024-25 |
Q4:2024-25 |
Q1:2025-26 |
| Overall Business Situation |
45.0 |
47.4 |
53.6 |
53.0 |
| Production |
36.3 |
36.3 |
50.7 |
49.9 |
| Order Books |
35.2 |
33.3 |
47.2 |
48.5 |
| Capacity Utilisation |
29.2 |
29.5 |
47.2 |
46.0 |
| Employment |
15.6 |
17.6 |
28.1 |
29.7 |
| Cost of Raw Materials |
-51.0 |
-47.6 |
-46.2 |
-46.2 |
| Selling Prices |
17.2 |
17.1 |
28.9 |
29.5 |
Note: Please see the excel file for time series data
| Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production |
| (Percentage responses)@ |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
45.2 |
11.2 |
43.6 |
34 |
63 |
5 |
31.9 |
58 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
41.2 |
12.2 |
46.7 |
29 |
70.9 |
5.7 |
23.4 |
65.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
46.6 |
12.3 |
41.1 |
34.4 |
62.3 |
4.2 |
33.6 |
58.1 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
41.4 |
13.6 |
45 |
27.9 |
60 |
6 |
34 |
54 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
37.6 |
14.7 |
47.7 |
22.9 |
40.7 |
4.3 |
55 |
36.3 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
40.5 |
4.3 |
55.2 |
36.3 |
| ‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. |
| @:Due to rounding off Percentage may not add up to 100. |
| Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order Books |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
41.1 |
10.4 |
48.5 |
30.7 |
63 |
4.8 |
32.2 |
58.1 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
38.3 |
12 |
49.7 |
26.3 |
68.5 |
6.1 |
25.4 |
62.3 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
43.4 |
11.6 |
44.9 |
31.8 |
61.8 |
6 |
32.1 |
55.8 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
39.9 |
14.3 |
45.9 |
25.6 |
57.1 |
6 |
36.9 |
51.1 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
35.3 |
15.8 |
48.9 |
19.5 |
39.4 |
4.2 |
56.3 |
35.2 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
38.1 |
4.8 |
57 |
33.3 |
| ‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
8.6 |
11.6 |
79.8 |
3.1 |
10.9 |
9.2 |
79.9 |
-1.7 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
8.6 |
11.9 |
79.4 |
3.3 |
9.7 |
8.5 |
81.8 |
-1.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
5.5 |
11.7 |
82.8 |
6.2 |
8.2 |
9.3 |
82.5 |
1.1 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
5.7 |
11.6 |
82.7 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
8.1 |
85.5 |
1.8 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
3.1 |
11.1 |
85.8 |
8 |
4.2 |
6 |
89.8 |
1.8 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
3.8 |
5.6 |
90.5 |
1.8 |
| Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product) |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
38.2 |
8.7 |
53 |
29.5 |
51.8 |
5.2 |
42.9 |
46.6 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
30.1 |
10.6 |
59.3 |
19.6 |
62.1 |
4.6 |
33.3 |
57.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
34.9 |
9.9 |
55.2 |
24.9 |
51.2 |
4.6 |
44.2 |
46.7 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
30.1 |
11.4 |
58.6 |
18.7 |
48.4 |
4.8 |
46.8 |
43.6 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
25.1 |
10 |
65 |
15.1 |
33.2 |
4 |
62.9 |
29.2 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
33.4 |
3.9 |
62.6 |
29.5 |
| ‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 5: Level of capacity utilisation (compared to the average in preceding 4 quarters) |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
30.5 |
9 |
60.6 |
21.5 |
39 |
6 |
55.1 |
33 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
26.2 |
9.4 |
64.4 |
16.7 |
36.1 |
6.1 |
57.8 |
30.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
20 |
10.4 |
69.6 |
9.6 |
33.3 |
5.7 |
61.1 |
27.6 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
16.2 |
11.7 |
72.1 |
4.6 |
22.5 |
7.1 |
70.4 |
15.4 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
14.9 |
8.1 |
77 |
6.8 |
13.1 |
4.7 |
82.2 |
8.4 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
14.4 |
3.8 |
81.8 |
10.5 |
| ‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Assessment of Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
23.3 |
4 |
72.7 |
19.3 |
43.4 |
3.9 |
52.7 |
39.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
25.1 |
4.7 |
70.2 |
20.4 |
42.7 |
3.2 |
54.1 |
39.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
17.7 |
5.6 |
76.7 |
12.1 |
38.5 |
3.6 |
57.9 |
34.9 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
9.8 |
3.2 |
87 |
6.6 |
27.2 |
4.7 |
68.1 |
22.5 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
6.9 |
2.1 |
90.9 |
4.8 |
14.7 |
2.5 |
82.8 |
12.3 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
12.8 |
1.5 |
85.7 |
11.3 |
| ‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for Exports |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
27.7 |
10 |
62.3 |
17.7 |
57.9 |
4.4 |
37.7 |
53.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
25.1 |
13.5 |
61.3 |
11.6 |
58.1 |
5 |
36.9 |
53.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
26.4 |
10.7 |
62.9 |
15.7 |
50.3 |
6.7 |
43 |
43.6 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
23.7 |
12.8 |
63.4 |
10.9 |
41.6 |
5.5 |
52.9 |
36.1 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
18.4 |
13.2 |
68.4 |
5.3 |
29.2 |
4.4 |
66.4 |
24.8 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
31.2 |
5 |
63.9 |
26.2 |
| ‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Imports |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
25.5 |
8.2 |
66.3 |
17.2 |
55.8 |
3.2 |
41 |
52.6 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
23.2 |
8.7 |
68 |
14.5 |
54.8 |
3.9 |
41.3 |
51 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
21.6 |
7.8 |
70.6 |
13.8 |
45.2 |
4.2 |
50.6 |
41 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
21.6 |
7.7 |
70.7 |
13.9 |
35.2 |
4.1 |
60.7 |
31.1 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
17.6 |
8.5 |
73.8 |
9.1 |
25.7 |
3 |
71.3 |
22.8 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
28 |
3.6 |
68.4 |
24.3 |
| ‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for level of Raw Materials Inventory |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above average |
Below average |
average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
average |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
11.5 |
5.3 |
83.2 |
-6.1 |
33 |
4 |
63.1 |
-29 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
12.9 |
4.1 |
83 |
-8.9 |
30.9 |
3.6 |
65.6 |
-27.3 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
13.3 |
6 |
80.7 |
-7.3 |
27.4 |
1.7 |
70.9 |
-25.7 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
11.9 |
6 |
82.1 |
-5.9 |
20.2 |
3.9 |
75.9 |
-16.3 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
8.8 |
6.1 |
85.1 |
-2.7 |
10.7 |
2.3 |
87 |
-8.3 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
11.9 |
2.3 |
85.8 |
-9.6 |
| ‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for level of Finished Goods Inventory |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above average |
Below average |
average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
average |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
11.7 |
4.5 |
83.7 |
-7.2 |
33.2 |
4.4 |
62.4 |
-28.8 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
14 |
4.5 |
81.5 |
-9.5 |
31.4 |
3.3 |
65.3 |
-28.2 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
12.4 |
6 |
81.7 |
-6.4 |
27.3 |
2 |
70.7 |
-25.3 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
11.9 |
6.4 |
81.7 |
-5.5 |
20.1 |
3.9 |
75.9 |
-16.2 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
9.5 |
6.5 |
84 |
-3 |
10.3 |
2.6 |
87.1 |
-7.7 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
12.1 |
2.2 |
85.8 |
-9.9 |
| ‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Employment Outlook |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
25.1 |
7.1 |
67.7 |
18 |
43.5 |
3 |
53.5 |
40.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
25.1 |
6.9 |
67.9 |
18.2 |
42.5 |
3.7 |
53.8 |
38.8 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
21.7 |
4.9 |
73.4 |
16.8 |
41.7 |
2.2 |
56.1 |
39.5 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
18.5 |
7.3 |
74.1 |
11.2 |
31.3 |
2.2 |
66.5 |
29.1 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
15.9 |
6.2 |
77.9 |
9.7 |
17.7 |
2.1 |
80.2 |
15.6 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
19.3 |
1.6 |
79.1 |
17.6 |
| ‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
41.6 |
10.7 |
47.7 |
30.9 |
60.2 |
3.9 |
35.9 |
56.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
36.8 |
11.2 |
52 |
25.6 |
68.7 |
5.1 |
26.2 |
63.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
45 |
10.1 |
44.9 |
34.8 |
58.2 |
4 |
37.8 |
54.2 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
40.9 |
12.4 |
46.7 |
28.5 |
59.2 |
5.2 |
35.6 |
54 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
37.5 |
11.9 |
50.6 |
25.6 |
44.7 |
2.5 |
52.8 |
42.2 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
49.1 |
2.7 |
48.1 |
46.4 |
| ‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
38.4 |
5.1 |
56.6 |
33.3 |
53.3 |
2.2 |
44.4 |
51.1 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
32.8 |
6.9 |
60.3 |
26 |
60.2 |
2.6 |
37.3 |
57.6 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
37.5 |
4.7 |
57.8 |
32.8 |
49.6 |
2.9 |
47.6 |
46.7 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
31.6 |
6.5 |
61.9 |
25.1 |
46.6 |
3 |
50.4 |
43.6 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
24.1 |
4.7 |
71.2 |
19.4 |
32 |
2.1 |
66 |
29.9 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
32.4 |
1.2 |
66.5 |
31.2 |
| ‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals) |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
37.1 |
6.3 |
56.6 |
30.8 |
54.4 |
2.1 |
43.5 |
52.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
30.6 |
6.9 |
62.5 |
23.7 |
61.6 |
2.5 |
35.9 |
59.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
35.9 |
6 |
58 |
29.9 |
49.3 |
2 |
48.7 |
47.4 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
29.5 |
6.5 |
64 |
23 |
47.7 |
2.9 |
49.4 |
44.8 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
23.5 |
5.4 |
71.1 |
18.1 |
33 |
1.2 |
65.9 |
31.8 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
32.9 |
0.8 |
66.3 |
32.1 |
| ‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources) |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
34.9 |
5.7 |
59.4 |
29.1 |
50.5 |
1.5 |
47.9 |
49 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
28.8 |
5.6 |
65.5 |
23.2 |
58.2 |
2.5 |
39.3 |
55.8 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
31.2 |
5.1 |
63.6 |
26.1 |
46.5 |
2.1 |
51.4 |
44.5 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
25.9 |
5.9 |
68.3 |
20 |
43.2 |
2.8 |
54 |
40.5 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
18.7 |
4.3 |
77 |
14.4 |
28.7 |
1.4 |
69.9 |
27.2 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
27.4 |
0.7 |
72 |
26.7 |
| ‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
24.3 |
5.7 |
69.9 |
18.6 |
52.4 |
2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
20.2 |
6 |
73.9 |
14.2 |
56.4 |
2.9 |
40.7 |
53.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
21.2 |
5.2 |
73.6 |
15.9 |
45.3 |
1.4 |
53.4 |
43.9 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
16.2 |
6.5 |
77.3 |
9.8 |
35.9 |
2.7 |
61.5 |
33.2 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
9.4 |
4.3 |
86.4 |
5.1 |
18.1 |
1.2 |
80.7 |
16.9 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
20.6 |
0.4 |
79 |
20.2 |
| ‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 17: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Finance |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
33 |
6.6 |
60.4 |
-26.4 |
56.4 |
2.2 |
41.5 |
-54.2 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
29.2 |
6.8 |
64 |
-22.5 |
58.5 |
3.6 |
37.9 |
-54.9 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
31.3 |
6.5 |
62.3 |
-24.8 |
48.8 |
2.9 |
48.3 |
-45.9 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
23.3 |
6.7 |
70 |
-16.6 |
40.3 |
4.1 |
55.6 |
-36.3 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
14.3 |
4.1 |
81.6 |
-10.2 |
22.1 |
2.9 |
75 |
-19.2 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
22.2 |
2 |
75.8 |
-20.2 |
| ‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. The column heads, namely ‘Increase’ and ‘Decrease’ in data releases for rounds 82-87 were interchanged and should be read as above. |
| Table 18: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Materials |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
49.3 |
5.5 |
45.3 |
-43.8 |
60.6 |
2.4 |
37 |
-58.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
41.8 |
8.4 |
49.7 |
-33.4 |
67.8 |
2.8 |
29.3 |
-65 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
50.2 |
6.3 |
43.5 |
-43.8 |
57 |
2.9 |
40.1 |
-54.2 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
53.9 |
4.6 |
41.5 |
-49.3 |
55.9 |
3.1 |
40.9 |
-52.8 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
44.5 |
5.8 |
49.8 |
-38.7 |
52.1 |
1.1 |
46.9 |
-51 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
49.2 |
1.6 |
49.3 |
-47.6 |
| ‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 19: Assessment and Expectations for Salary/Other Remuneration |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
32.3 |
3.5 |
64.2 |
-28.8 |
49.8 |
0.5 |
49.7 |
-49.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
30.3 |
4.1 |
65.7 |
-26.2 |
47.3 |
1.7 |
51 |
-45.6 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
26.1 |
1.8 |
72.1 |
-24.3 |
42.9 |
0.9 |
56.2 |
-42 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
42.9 |
1.2 |
55.9 |
-41.7 |
52.9 |
0.9 |
46.2 |
-51.9 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
18.8 |
1.4 |
79.8 |
-17.4 |
26.7 |
0.6 |
72.7 |
-26.1 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
27.8 |
0.3 |
71.9 |
-27.4 |
| ‘Decrease’ in Salary / other remuneration is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 20: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
22.3 |
10.6 |
67.1 |
11.7 |
46.9 |
5.4 |
47.7 |
41.4 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
22 |
11.9 |
66.1 |
10.2 |
45.2 |
5.2 |
49.6 |
40.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
18.9 |
10.8 |
70.3 |
8.1 |
40.4 |
5.6 |
54 |
34.8 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
18.5 |
10.5 |
71 |
8 |
30.5 |
5.7 |
63.8 |
24.7 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
78.4 |
0.2 |
20.3 |
3.1 |
76.5 |
17.2 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
19.3 |
2.2 |
78.5 |
17.1 |
| ‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 21: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
21.9 |
17.4 |
60.7 |
4.5 |
43.8 |
8.1 |
48.1 |
35.7 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
20.5 |
19.1 |
60.4 |
1.4 |
45.5 |
9.7 |
44.8 |
35.8 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
17.2 |
20.6 |
62.1 |
-3.4 |
40.3 |
9.5 |
50.2 |
30.8 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
13 |
25.3 |
61.7 |
-12.3 |
30.4 |
10.4 |
59.2 |
20 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
12.2 |
22.4 |
65.4 |
-10.2 |
16.7 |
6.8 |
76.4 |
9.9 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
19.4 |
5.8 |
74.9 |
13.6 |
| ‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 22: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
46 |
11.8 |
42.2 |
34.3 |
65 |
4.3 |
30.7 |
60.7 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
40.6 |
12 |
47.4 |
28.6 |
73.1 |
5.2 |
21.7 |
67.9 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
1,354 |
47.2 |
11.3 |
41.4 |
35.9 |
62.5 |
4.2 |
33.3 |
58.3 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
1,351 |
42.7 |
13.1 |
44.2 |
29.6 |
62 |
5.5 |
32.5 |
56.5 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
1,300 |
39.7 |
13.3 |
47 |
26.3 |
47.4 |
2.5 |
50.1 |
45 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
51.2 |
3.9 |
44.9 |
47.4 |
| ‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
| Table 23: Business Sentiments4 |
| Quarter |
Business Assessment Index (BAI) |
Business Expectations Index (BEI) |
| Q2:2023-24 |
115.0 |
132.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
113.9 |
135.4 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
114.2 |
130.3 |
| Q1:2024-25 |
110.8 |
127.2 |
| Q2:2024-25 |
108.3 |
119.1 |
| Q3:2024-25 |
|
120.3 |
[1] सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जिन्हें आवश्यक रूप से रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा साझा नहीं किया जाता है।
[2] पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर के परिणाम 8 अगस्त, 2024को बैंक की वेबसाइट पर जारी किए गए।
[3] Net Response (NR) is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimism. It ranges between -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism. In other words, NR = (I – D), where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, and D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/equal’ (i.e., I+D+E=100). For example, increase in production is optimism whereas decrease in cost of raw material is optimism.
[4] For each survey round, two summary indices are computed – one based on assessment [viz., Business Assessment Index (BAI)] and another based on expectations [viz., Business Expectations Index (BEI)]. Each index is a composite indicator calculated as a simple average of nine business parameters, where each parameter is derived as a weighted net response, weights being the share of industry groups in gross value added (GVA). The nine parameters considered are: (1) overall business situation; (2) production; (3) order books; (4) inventory of raw material; (5) inventory of finished goods; (6) profit margins; (7) employment; (8) exports; and (9) capacity utilisation. BAI/BEI gives a snapshot of the business outlook in every quarter and takes values between 0 and 200, with 100 being the threshold separating expansion from contraction.
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