क्यू 3: 2019-20 के लिए विनिर्माण क्षेत्र का औद्योगिक आउटलुक सर्वेक्षण

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06 फ़रवरी 2020 को प्रकाशित

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क्यू 3: 2019-20 के लिए विनिर्माण क्षेत्र का औद्योगिक आउटलुक सर्वेक्षण

आज रिज़र्व बैंक ने अक्तूबर-दिसंबर 2019 में औद्योगिक आउटलुक सर्वेक्षण (आइओएस) के 88वें चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। इस सर्वेक्षण में क्यू3:2019-20 के लिए भारत के विनिर्माण क्षेत्र में कंपनियों द्वारा कारोबारी परिस्थिति के गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन और क्यू 4: 2019-20¹ के लिए उनकी प्रत्याशाओं को समाहित किया गया है। सर्वेक्षण के इस चक्र में 775 कंपनियों से प्रत्युत्तर प्राप्त किए गए।

विशेष:

A. क्यू3-2019-20 के लिए मूल्यांकन

क्यू3-2019-20 में ऑर्डर आप्रवाह और उत्पादन में तेजी रही, जो पिछली तिमाही में प्रदर्शित नकारात्मक भावनाओं के विपरीत बदलाव को दर्शाता है, लेकिन रोजगार की स्थिति पर भावनाएं कमजोर रहीं।
कमजोर वैश्विक मांग की स्थिति के अनुरूप निर्माताओं ने क्यू3-2019-20 में बाहर के देशों से मांग का आकलन सुस्त रहने का किया।
समग्र वित्तीय स्थिति पर भावनाएँ, जो पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र में अवसादपूर्ण थीं, आशावाद के क्षेत्र में आ गईं।
क्यू3-2019-20 में उधार राशियों पर ब्याज भुगतान, कच्चे माल की खरीद और वेतन खर्चों में नरमी के चलते प्रोद्भूत लागत दबावों का मूल्यांकन कमतर रहा लेकिन लाभ मार्जिन के ममामले में कमजोर मांग और बिक्री मूल्य और नकारात्मक भावनाओं के कारण निरंतर इसमें नरमी जारी रही।
क्यू3-2019-20 में कारोबार मूल्यांकन सूचकांक (BAI)² 93.0 पर था, जो कि क्यू2-2019-20 के लिए 92.5 के पहले के प्रिंट से थोड़ा अधिक था।

B. क्यू4-2019-20 के लिए अपेक्षाएं

आगे, क्यू4-2019-20 में उत्तरदाताओं को मांग मापदंडों जैसे- उत्पादन, ऑर्डर बुक और निर्यात में सुधार की उम्मीद है। हालांकि मामूली रूप से रोजगार की उम्मीदें भी बेहतर हुई हैं।
क्यू4-2019-20 में समग्र वित्तीय स्थिति पर निर्माता आशावादी बने हुए हैं।
बिक्री मूल्य पर आशावादिता में कमी के साथ ही निर्माता यथापूर्व लागत दबावों के बावजूद लाभ मार्जिन घटने की उम्मीद करते हैं।
बिजनेस एक्सपेक्टेशंस इंडेक्स (BEI) जो क्यू3: 2019-20 में 102.2 था, क्यू 4: 2019-20 में बढ़कर 105.0 हो गया।

Summary Table Net responses³
(per cent)
Parameters	Assessment period		Expectations period
Parameters	Q2:2019-20	Q3:2019-20	Q3:2019-20	Q4:2019-20
Production	-1.9	0.4	13.9	17.2
Order Books	-2.8	0.3	13.9	16.6
Pending Orders	21.0	22.1	14.4	15.9
Capacity Utilisation	-9.0	-8.3	4.4	7.9
Exports	0.0	-0.9	7.3	8.6
Imports	1.5	0.9	6.4	5.4
Employment	-0.9	-1.6	0.7	1.8
Financial Situation (Overall)	-1.1	5.3	15.8	19.5
Availability of Finance (from internal accruals)	6.9	6.6	13.2	13.4
Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources)	4.3	7.2	12.7	11.7
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable)	2.8	2.5	5.1	3.0
Cost of Finance	-13.1	-8.7	-10.0	-7.9
Cost of Raw Materials	-35.3	-26.1	-30.8	-30.0
Salary/ Other Remuneration	-36.0	-27.0	-23.2	-22.1
Selling Price	-7.6	-9.6	4.6	2.2
Profit Margin	-22.6	-22.1	-8.5	-10.2
Overall Business Situation	-0.8	3.5	21.7	22.6
Note: Please see the excel file for time series data

Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	38.2	13.3	48.5	24.9	41.6	9.0	49.4	32.5
Q4:2018-19	1,258	40.2	14.9	44.9	25.3	43.5	7.2	49.3	36.3
Q1:2019-20	1,231	38.6	15.6	45.8	23.0	42.1	9.3	48.5	32.8
Q2:2019-20	481	26.5	28.4	45.2	-1.9	40.1	11.0	48.9	29.1
Q3:2019-20	775	28.7	28.3	43.1	0.4	34.8	21.0	44.2	13.9
Q4:2019-20						35.4	18.2	46.4	17.2
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. @: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.

Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order Books
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	35.3	15.8	48.9	19.5	38.6	9.6	51.8	28.9
Q4:2018-19	1,258	35.3	15.9	48.8	19.5	41.0	8.5	50.5	32.5
Q1:2019-20	1,231	34.1	15.4	50.5	18.8	38.5	8.6	52.8	29.9
Q2:2019-20	481	27.4	30.2	42.5	-2.8	31.6	11.1	57.3	20.5
Q3:2019-20	775	26.9	26.6	46.5	0.3	34.3	20.4	45.3	13.9
Q4:2019-20						33.6	17.0	49.3	16.6
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Above Normal	Below Normal	Normal	Net response	Above Normal	Below Normal	Normal	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	4.7	13.2	82.1	8.6	7.4	11.0	81.6	3.6
Q4:2018-19	1,258	5.1	14.3	80.6	9.2	6.3	9.9	83.8	3.6
Q1:2019-20	1,231	6.0	15.7	78.3	9.6	6.1	10.4	83.5	4.3
Q2:2019-20	481	4.5	25.5	70.0	21.0	16.1	9.4	74.5	-6.7
Q3:2019-20	775	3.4	25.5	71.1	22.1	3.9	18.3	77.8	14.4
Q4:2019-20						3.7	19.5	76.8	15.9
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	24.9	12.3	62.8	12.6	28.3	7.3	64.4	21.0
Q4:2018-19	1,258	26.2	13.3	60.5	12.8	30.3	6.5	63.1	23.8
Q1:2019-20	1,231	22.8	13.4	63.8	9.4	27.2	7.7	65.1	19.6
Q2:2019-20	481	15.9	24.9	59.2	-9.0	23.1	9.2	67.7	13.9
Q3:2019-20	775	17.5	25.8	56.7	-8.3	24.4	20.0	55.6	4.4
Q4:2019-20						23.1	15.2	61.6	7.9
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Above Normal	Below Normal	Normal	Net response	Above Normal	Below Normal	Normal	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	10.1	12.9	76.9	-2.8	12.5	9.1	78.4	3.4
Q4:2018-19	1,258	11.6	13.0	75.3	-1.4	12.7	8.6	78.7	4.1
Q1:2019-20	1,231	9.6	14.8	75.7	-5.2	12.2	8.2	79.6	4.0
Q2:2019-20	481	8.1	26.6	65.3	-18.6	9.2	8.8	82.0	0.3
Q3:2019-20	775	6.6	26.9	66.5	-20.3	9.3	21.7	69.0	-12.4
Q4:2019-20						7.9	18.5	73.6	-10.6
‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Assessment of Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	More than adequate	Less than adequate	Adequate	Net response	More than adequate	Less than adequate	Adequate	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	10.3	7.2	82.5	3.0	11.9	6.3	81.8	5.6
Q4:2018-19	1,258	11.2	7.4	81.4	3.8	10.6	6.1	83.3	4.5
Q1:2019-20	1,231	11.0	6.7	82.2	4.3	12.2	6.2	81.6	6.0
Q2:2019-20	481	15.1	14.2	70.7	0.9	13.5	6.9	79.6	6.6
Q3:2019-20	775	15.8	11.7	72.5	4.2	15.3	12.4	72.2	2.9
Q4:2019-20						14.6	11.4	74.0	3.2
‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for Exports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	25.1	13.0	61.9	12.1	26.1	10.2	63.7	15.9
Q4:2018-19	1,258	25.0	12.0	63.0	13.0	27.8	8.0	64.2	19.8
Q1:2019-20	1,231	24.6	11.5	64.0	13.1	25.7	8.0	66.2	17.7
Q2:2019-20	481	21.3	21.3	57.5	0.0	24.0	8.2	67.8	15.8
Q3:2019-20	775	18.3	19.2	62.5	-0.9	24.3	17.0	58.7	7.3
Q4:2019-20						22.4	13.8	63.9	8.6
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Imports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	20.1	8.5	71.4	11.6	19.3	7.1	73.6	12.2
Q4:2018-19	1,258	19.7	8.7	71.6	10.9	21.0	5.3	73.7	15.7
Q1:2019-20	1,231	18.2	8.3	73.4	9.9	19.2	6.2	74.6	13.0
Q2:2019-20	481	16.0	14.5	69.6	1.5	18.4	7.4	74.2	11.1
Q3:2019-20	775	13.2	12.3	74.5	0.9	18.1	11.7	70.2	6.4
Q4:2019-20						15.7	10.2	74.1	5.4
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for level of Raw Materials Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Above average	Below average	Average	Net response	Above average	Below average	Average	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	14.3	4.6	81.0	-9.7	11.3	4.6	84.1	-6.7
Q4:2018-19	1,258	14.9	5.5	79.6	-9.5	12.1	4.2	83.8	-7.9
Q1:2019-20	1,231	13.9	5.7	80.4	-8.3	12.0	3.7	84.3	-8.3
Q2:2019-20	481	17.1	8.4	74.5	-8.6	11.8	4.2	84.0	-7.7
Q3:2019-20	775	13.9	7.7	78.4	-6.2	13.2	6.6	80.3	-6.6
Q4:2019-20						10.6	7.0	82.4	-3.6
‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for level of Finished Goods Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Above average	Below average	Average	Net response	Above average	Below average	Average	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	15.0	4.9	80.1	-10.0	10.8	5.2	83.9	-5.6
Q4:2018-19	1,258	14.4	6.5	79.1	-7.9	11.1	4.6	84.3	-6.5
Q1:2019-20	1,231	13.5	6.7	79.8	-6.8	10.5	4.9	84.6	-5.6
Q2:2019-20	481	22.5	8.0	69.5	-14.5	13.0	6.0	81.0	-7.0
Q3:2019-20	775	18.3	7.3	74.4	-11.0	15.7	5.0	79.3	-10.7
Q4:2019-20						12.9	6.2	80.9	-6.7
‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Employment Outlook
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	16.1	6.7	77.1	9.4	17.1	4.2	78.7	12.9
Q4:2018-19	1,258	16.7	6.9	76.5	9.8	17.0	4.8	78.2	12.2
Q1:2019-20	1,231	15.9	7.3	76.8	8.6	17.1	4.8	78.1	12.3
Q2:2019-20	481	13.4	14.2	72.4	-0.9	16.6	5.7	77.7	10.9
Q3:2019-20	775	12.2	13.8	74.0	-1.6	12.1	11.4	76.5	0.7
Q4:2019-20						12.5	10.7	76.8	1.8
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	28.5	11.9	59.6	16.5	34.4	7.5	58.0	26.9
Q4:2018-19	1,258	29.3	11.4	59.3	17.8	35.2	6.5	58.3	28.7
Q1:2019-20	1,231	29.7	8.6	61.7	21.1	35.0	5.7	59.3	29.3
Q2:2019-20	481	21.2	22.2	56.6	-1.1	34.3	6.1	59.6	28.3
Q3:2019-20	775	24.6	19.3	56.1	5.3	30.6	14.8	54.7	15.8
Q4:2019-20						31.2	11.7	57.1	19.5
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	30.5	5.6	63.9	24.9	30.6	4.0	65.4	26.6
Q4:2018-19	1,258	30.8	4.6	64.6	26.2	29.9	4.4	65.7	25.6
Q1:2019-20	1,231	28.5	5.4	66.1	23.2	29.6	4.1	66.3	25.6
Q2:2019-20	481	28.4	10.7	60.9	17.7	27.7	5.5	66.8	22.1
Q3:2019-20	775	27.4	8.7	63.9	18.7	29.3	5.5	65.3	23.8
Q4:2019-20						27.3	5.7	66.9	21.6
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	21.2	10.4	68.4	10.8	24.9	6.7	68.3	18.2
Q4:2018-19	1,258	22.8	7.5	69.6	15.3	25.4	6.2	68.4	19.2
Q1:2019-20	1,231	23.2	7.2	69.6	16.0	25.5	5.0	69.5	20.5
Q2:2019-20	481	19.6	12.7	67.7	6.9	23.0	5.7	71.3	17.3
Q3:2019-20	775	19.0	12.4	68.6	6.6	21.4	8.1	70.5	13.2
Q4:2019-20						22.1	8.8	69.1	13.4
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	17.2	6.0	76.8	11.2	19.0	5.9	75.1	13.1
Q4:2018-19	1,258	17.8	7.0	75.2	10.8	20.1	4.1	75.8	16.0
Q1:2019-20	1,231	17.9	6.0	76.1	11.9	19.3	5.0	75.7	14.2
Q2:2019-20	481	14.3	10.0	75.8	4.3	17.4	4.4	78.2	13.0
Q3:2019-20	775	14.6	7.4	78.1	7.2	18.7	6.0	75.3	12.7
Q4:2019-20						17.7	5.9	76.4	11.7
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	6.9	4.0	89.1	2.9	9.5	4.3	86.2	5.2
Q4:2018-19	1,258	8.6	3.9	87.6	4.7	9.0	3.0	88.0	6.0
Q1:2019-20	1,231	8.2	4.0	87.8	4.3	9.5	3.5	87.0	6.0
Q2:2019-20	481	6.9	4.1	89.1	2.8	13.1	3.5	83.5	9.6
Q3:2019-20	775	7.5	5.0	87.6	2.5	9.2	4.1	86.7	5.1
Q4:2019-20						7.3	4.3	88.4	3.0
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 17: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	24.9	5.4	69.7	-19.5	24.7	4.9	70.4	-19.8
Q4:2018-19	1,258	21.3	5.6	73.1	-15.7	22.3	4.8	73.0	-17.5
Q1:2019-20	1,231	22.4	4.9	72.7	-17.6	20.2	5.8	74.0	-14.4
Q2:2019-20	481	21.3	8.1	70.6	-13.1	22.5	7.1	70.4	-15.4
Q3:2019-20	775	16.9	8.2	74.9	-8.7	18.5	8.4	73.1	-10.0
Q4:2019-20						15.0	7.1	77.9	-7.9
‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 18: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Materials
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	53.1	3.9	43.1	-49.2	46.5	1.9	51.6	-44.5
Q4:2018-19	1,258	46.8	4.8	48.4	-41.9	42.1	3.5	54.3	-38.6
Q1:2019-20	1,231	46.4	3.1	50.5	-43.3	37.2	3.5	59.2	-33.7
Q2:2019-20	481	42.4	7.1	50.5	-35.3	31.4	3.8	64.8	-27.6
Q3:2019-20	775	37.2	11.1	51.7	-26.1	37.0	6.2	56.8	-30.8
Q4:2019-20						35.6	5.6	58.8	-30.0
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 19: Assessment and Expectations for Salary/Other Remuneration
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	29.8	1.6	68.6	-28.2	25.6	1.2	73.2	-24.4
Q4:2018-19	1,258	28.5	1.8	69.7	-26.7	22.8	1.4	75.8	-21.4
Q1:2019-20	1,231	38.8	1.6	59.6	-37.2	34.0	1.1	64.9	-32.9
Q2:2019-20	481	38.6	2.6	58.8	-36.0	34.5	0.9	64.6	-33.7
Q3:2019-20	775	38.6	2.6	58.8	-36.0	34.5	0.9	64.6	-33.7
Q4:2019-20						25.0	1.8	73.2	-23.2
‘Decrease’ in Salary / other remuneration is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 20: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	19.9	13.7	66.4	6.2	21.0	6.7	72.3	14.3
Q4:2018-19	1,258	17.5	13.1	69.3	4.4	19.4	7.1	73.5	12.3
Q1:2019-20	1,231	17.1	10.5	72.4	6.6	19.5	8.5	72.0	11.0
Q2:2019-20	481	13.8	21.4	64.8	-7.6	15.5	8.4	76.1	7.1
Q3:2019-20	775	12.0	21.6	66.4	-9.6	18.6	14.0	67.3	4.6
Q4:2019-20						15.2	13.0	71.9	2.2
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 21: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	16.1	27.8	56.1	-11.7	17.1	17.0	65.9	0.1
Q4:2018-19	1,258	16.2	25.5	58.3	-9.3	18.7	16.7	64.5	2.0
Q1:2019-20	1,231	16.1	24.1	59.8	-8.0	17.8	17.0	65.1	0.8
Q2:2019-20	481	13.5	36.1	50.4	-22.6	21.9	14.5	63.6	7.4
Q3:2019-20	775	12.3	34.4	53.3	-22.1	17.6	26.1	56.3	-8.5
Q4:2019-20						16.3	26.4	57.3	-10.2
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 22: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter	Total response	Assessment				Expectations
Quarter	Total response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q3:2018-19	1,267	34.9	10.3	54.8	24.6	43.3	7.0	49.8	36.3
Q4:2018-19	1,258	33.9	11.5	54.7	22.4	43.2	6.5	50.3	36.7
Q1:2019-20	1,231	35.1	10.5	54.4	24.6	42.5	5.6	51.9	36.9
Q2:2019-20	481	24.5	25.4	50.1	-0.8	41.1	6.0	52.9	35.2
Q3:2019-20	775	26.4	22.9	50.8	3.5	37.3	15.6	47.1	21.7
Q4:2019-20						35.8	13.2	50.9	22.6
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 23: Business Sentiments
Quarter	Business Assessment Index (BAI)	Business Expectations Index (BEI)
Q3:2018-19	107.1	115.0
Q4:2018-19	107.2	116.2
Q1:2019-20	108.4	113.5
Q2:2019-20	92.5	112.8
Q3:2019-20	93.0	102.2
Q4:2019-20		105.0

¹ सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जो जरूरी नहीं कि भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा साझा किए जाते हैं। सर्वेक्षण के 87वें (क्यू-2, 2019-20) चक्र के परिणाम भारिबैं की वेब साइट पर 04 अक्तूबर, 2019 को जारी किए जा चुके हैं।

² प्रत्येक सर्वेक्षण चक्र के लिए दो अक्षांकों (इन्डिसेज) की गणना की जाती है-जो मूल्यांकन आधारित होता है, जिसका नाम है कारोबार मूल्यांकन सूचकांक (बीएआइ) और दूसरा प्रत्याशाओं पर आधारित होता है, जिसका नाम है कारोबार प्रत्याशा सूचकांक (बीईआइ)। संबंधित अवधि के लिए प्रत्येक संकेतक की गणना नौ कारोबारी संकेतकों के भारित निवल प्रत्युत्तरों (विभिन्न उद्योग समूहों के जीवीए का भाग) के रूप में किया जाता है। हिसाब में लिए गए नौ संकेतक हैः (1) समग्र कारोबार स्थिति; (2) उत्पादन; (3) ऑर्डर बुक्स; (4) कच्चे माल की सूची; (5) तैयार माल की सूची; (6) लाभ मार्जिन; (7) रोज़गार; (8) निर्यात; (9) क्षमता उपभोग। बीएआइ/बीईआइ से हमें प्रत्येक तिमाही के कारोबार परिदृश्य के लिए एक स्नैप शॉट मिल जाता है और 0 से 200 के बीच मूल्यों को ग्रहण करता है, जबकि 100 थ्रेशहोलड या अधिकतम सीमा है जो विस्तार या बढ़त से संकुचन को अलग करती है।

³ Net Response (NR) is the difference in percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism. NR = (I – D), where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, and D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/Equal’; I+D+E=100. For example, increase in production is optimism whereas decrease in cost of raw material is optimism.