आज रिज़र्व बैंक ने जनवरी-मार्च 2020 में औद्योगिक आउटलुक सर्वेक्षण (आइओएस) के 89वें चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। इस सर्वेक्षण में क्यू4:2019-20 के लिए भारत के विनिर्माण क्षेत्र में कंपनियों द्वारा कारोबारी परिस्थिति के गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन और क्यू 1: 2020-211 के लिए उनकी प्रत्याशाओं को समाहित किया गया है। सर्वेक्षण के इस चक्र में 860 कंपनियों से प्रत्युत्तर प्राप्त किए गए। औद्योगिक गतिविधियों पर कोरोनवायरस के प्रकोप के अचानक प्रतिकूल प्रभाव के मद्देनजर, इन 860 उत्तरदाताओं के लिए 18-20 मार्च 2020 के दौरान IOS के कुछ महत्वपूर्ण मापदंडों पर एक त्वरित सर्वेक्षण किया गया था, जिनमें से 48 कंपनियों ने रिपीट सर्वेक्षण का जवाब दिया। इन 48 कंपनियों के उत्तर को विशेष सारणी 24 और 25 में संक्षेपित किया गया है। विशेष: क. क्यू4-2019-20 के लिए मूल्यांकन
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क्यू4-2019-20 में विनिर्माण कंपनियों ने उत्पादन और ऑर्डर बुक्स में पिछली तिमाही में प्रदर्शित दुर्बल भावनाओं से हटकर कुछ दर्शाया है। रोजगार की स्थिति पर भावनाएं मामूली रूप से आसावादी रहीं।
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उत्तरदाताओं ने बाह्य मागों के मामले में आशावादी भावनाएं प्रदर्शित की हैं समग्र वित्तीय स्थिति के लिए उनके द्वारा किए गए आकलन में भी सुधार हुआ है।
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कच्ची सामग्री का मूल्य और उनके बिक्री मूल्य में वृद्धि का आकलन किया गया है लेकिन लाभ मार्जिन का मूल्यांकन निरंतर कमी दर्शाता है,यद्यपि दुर्बल भावनाओं में थोड़ी कमी पाई गई।
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उधारियों और वेतन व्ययों पर पर ब्याज के भुगतान से प्रोद्भूत दबावों में कमी का अनुमान किया गया।
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क्यू4-2019-20 में कारोबार मूल्यांकन सूचकांक (BAI)2 102.2 के स्तर पर आ गया था और क्रमिक दो तिमाहियों में निराशाजनक रहने के बाद आशाजनक क्षेत्र में आ गया।
ख. क्यू1-2020-21 के लिए अपेक्षाएं
ग. त्वरित सर्वेक्षण परिणाम (48 कंपनियाँ)
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48 कंपनियों के लिए मार्च 18-20, 2020 के दौरान दुहराए गए सर्वेक्षण के उत्तरदाताओं ने विनिर्माण क्षेत्र में मांग की स्थितियों के खराब होने का अनुमान व्यक्त किया जिसके परिणामस्वरूप क्यू4-2019-20 में समग्र कारोबार की स्थितियाँ नकारात्मक हो गईं। क्यू1-2020-21 के लिए परिदृश्य भी नकारात्मक भावनों का हो गया।
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आइओएस के 89 वें चक्र और त्वरित सर्वेक्षण परिणाम इन दोनों के उभयी उत्तरदाताओं के लिए एक तुलनात्मक परिणाम से पता चलता है कि (क) क्यू4:2019-20 में चौतरफा सभी क्षेत्रों में भावनाओं में तीव्र क्षरण हुआ है और (ख) सर्वेक्षण के नियमित चक्र में दिए गए उनके मूल्यांकन/आकलन से तुलना करने पर क्यू1: 2020-21 के लिए घोर निराशावादिता पाई गई।
Summary Table Net responses3 |
(per cent) |
Parameters |
Assessment period |
Expectations period |
Q3:2019-20 |
Q4:2019-20 |
Q4:2019-20 |
Q1:2020-21 |
Production |
0.4 |
13.8 |
17.2 |
23.7 |
Order Books |
0.3 |
10.0 |
16.6 |
18.4 |
Pending Orders |
22.1 |
14.4 |
15.9 |
11.6 |
Capacity Utilisation |
-8.3 |
2.0 |
7.9 |
11.3 |
Inventory of Raw Materials |
-6.2 |
-5.1 |
-3.6 |
-2.9 |
Inventory of Finished Goods |
-11.0 |
-6.5 |
-6.7 |
-4.3 |
Exports |
-0.9 |
5.8 |
8.6 |
11.0 |
Imports |
0.9 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
6.6 |
Employment |
-1.6 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
5.2 |
Financial Situation (Overall) |
5.3 |
12.8 |
19.5 |
24.3 |
Availability of Finance (from internal accruals) |
6.6 |
13.7 |
13.4 |
17.0 |
Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources) |
7.2 |
10.8 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
Cost of Finance |
-8.7 |
-6.6 |
-7.9 |
-6.1 |
Cost of Raw Material |
-26.1 |
-34.1 |
-30.0 |
-33.6 |
Salary/ Other Remuneration |
-27.0 |
-24.8 |
-22.1 |
-33.1 |
Selling Price |
-9.6 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
8.3 |
Profit Margin |
-22.1 |
-11.6 |
-10.2 |
-2.9 |
Overall Business Situation |
3.5 |
15.7 |
22.6 |
28.2 |
Note: Please see the excel file for time series data |
Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production |
(Percentage responses)@ |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
40.2 |
14.9 |
44.9 |
25.3 |
43.5 |
7.2 |
49.3 |
36.3 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
38.6 |
15.6 |
45.8 |
23.0 |
42.1 |
9.3 |
48.5 |
32.8 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
26.5 |
28.4 |
45.2 |
-1.9 |
40.1 |
11.0 |
48.9 |
29.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
28.7 |
28.3 |
43.1 |
0.4 |
34.8 |
21.0 |
44.2 |
13.9 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
33.6 |
19.8 |
46.6 |
13.8 |
35.4 |
18.2 |
46.4 |
17.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
37.8 |
14.1 |
48.1 |
23.7 |
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. @:Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. |
Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order Books |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
35.3 |
15.9 |
48.8 |
19.5 |
41.0 |
8.5 |
50.5 |
32.5 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
34.1 |
15.4 |
50.5 |
18.8 |
38.5 |
8.6 |
52.8 |
29.9 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
27.4 |
30.2 |
42.5 |
-2.8 |
31.6 |
11.1 |
57.3 |
20.5 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
26.9 |
26.6 |
46.5 |
0.3 |
34.3 |
20.4 |
45.3 |
13.9 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
30.1 |
20.1 |
49.9 |
10.0 |
33.6 |
17.0 |
49.3 |
16.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
33.5 |
15.1 |
51.4 |
18.4 |
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
5.1 |
14.3 |
80.6 |
9.2 |
6.3 |
9.9 |
83.8 |
3.6 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
6.0 |
15.7 |
78.3 |
9.6 |
6.1 |
10.4 |
83.5 |
4.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
4.5 |
25.5 |
70.0 |
21.0 |
16.1 |
9.4 |
74.5 |
-6.7 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
3.4 |
25.5 |
71.1 |
22.1 |
3.9 |
18.3 |
77.8 |
14.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
4.1 |
18.5 |
77.4 |
14.4 |
3.7 |
19.5 |
76.8 |
15.9 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
4.6 |
16.2 |
79.1 |
11.6 |
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
26.2 |
13.3 |
60.5 |
12.8 |
30.3 |
6.5 |
63.1 |
23.8 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
22.8 |
13.4 |
63.8 |
9.4 |
27.2 |
7.7 |
65.1 |
19.6 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
15.9 |
24.9 |
59.2 |
-9.0 |
23.1 |
9.2 |
67.7 |
13.9 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
17.5 |
25.8 |
56.7 |
-8.3 |
24.4 |
20.0 |
55.6 |
4.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
21.0 |
19.0 |
60.0 |
2.0 |
23.1 |
15.2 |
61.6 |
7.9 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
25.5 |
14.2 |
60.3 |
11.3 |
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
11.6 |
13.0 |
75.3 |
-1.4 |
12.7 |
8.6 |
78.7 |
4.1 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
9.6 |
14.8 |
75.7 |
-5.2 |
12.2 |
8.2 |
79.6 |
4.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
8.1 |
26.6 |
65.3 |
-18.6 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
82.0 |
0.3 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
6.6 |
26.9 |
66.5 |
-20.3 |
9.3 |
21.7 |
69.0 |
-12.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
7.6 |
21.6 |
70.7 |
-14.0 |
7.9 |
18.5 |
73.6 |
-10.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
9.1 |
16.4 |
74.5 |
-7.3 |
‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Assessment of Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
11.2 |
7.4 |
81.4 |
3.8 |
10.6 |
6.1 |
83.3 |
4.5 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
11.0 |
6.7 |
82.2 |
4.3 |
12.2 |
6.2 |
81.6 |
6.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
15.1 |
14.2 |
70.7 |
0.9 |
13.5 |
6.9 |
79.6 |
6.6 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
15.8 |
11.7 |
72.5 |
4.2 |
15.3 |
12.4 |
72.2 |
2.9 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
14.3 |
9.5 |
76.2 |
4.8 |
14.6 |
11.4 |
74.0 |
3.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
13.7 |
8.8 |
77.5 |
4.9 |
‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for Exports |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
25.0 |
12.0 |
63.0 |
13.0 |
27.8 |
8.0 |
64.2 |
19.8 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
24.6 |
11.5 |
64.0 |
13.1 |
25.7 |
8.0 |
66.2 |
17.7 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
21.3 |
21.3 |
57.5 |
0.0 |
24.0 |
8.2 |
67.8 |
15.8 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
18.3 |
19.2 |
62.5 |
-0.9 |
24.3 |
17.0 |
58.7 |
7.3 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
20.1 |
14.3 |
65.5 |
5.8 |
22.4 |
13.8 |
63.9 |
8.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
22.5 |
11.5 |
66.0 |
11.0 |
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Imports |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
19.7 |
8.7 |
71.6 |
10.9 |
21.0 |
5.3 |
73.7 |
15.7 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
18.2 |
8.3 |
73.4 |
9.9 |
19.2 |
6.2 |
74.6 |
13.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
16.0 |
14.5 |
69.6 |
1.5 |
18.4 |
7.4 |
74.2 |
11.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
13.2 |
12.3 |
74.5 |
0.9 |
18.1 |
11.7 |
70.2 |
6.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
16.0 |
11.3 |
72.7 |
4.7 |
15.7 |
10.2 |
74.1 |
5.4 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
16.9 |
10.3 |
72.8 |
6.6 |
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for level of Raw Materials Inventory |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
14.9 |
5.5 |
79.6 |
-9.5 |
12.1 |
4.2 |
83.8 |
-7.9 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
13.9 |
5.7 |
80.4 |
-8.3 |
12.0 |
3.7 |
84.3 |
-8.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
17.1 |
8.4 |
74.5 |
-8.6 |
11.8 |
4.2 |
84.0 |
-7.7 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
13.9 |
7.7 |
78.4 |
-6.2 |
13.2 |
6.6 |
80.3 |
-6.6 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
12.9 |
7.8 |
79.3 |
-5.1 |
10.6 |
7.0 |
82.4 |
-3.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
9.8 |
6.9 |
83.3 |
-2.9 |
‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for level of Finished Goods Inventory |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
14.4 |
6.5 |
79.1 |
-7.9 |
11.1 |
4.6 |
84.3 |
-6.5 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
13.5 |
6.7 |
79.8 |
-6.8 |
10.5 |
4.9 |
84.6 |
-5.6 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
22.5 |
8.0 |
69.5 |
-14.5 |
13.0 |
6.0 |
81.0 |
-7.0 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
18.3 |
7.3 |
74.4 |
-11.0 |
15.7 |
5.0 |
79.3 |
-10.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
13.3 |
6.7 |
80.0 |
-6.5 |
12.9 |
6.2 |
80.9 |
-6.7 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
10.4 |
6.2 |
83.4 |
-4.3 |
‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Employment Outlook |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
16.7 |
6.9 |
76.5 |
9.8 |
17.0 |
4.8 |
78.2 |
12.2 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
15.9 |
7.3 |
76.8 |
8.6 |
17.1 |
4.8 |
78.1 |
12.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
13.4 |
14.2 |
72.4 |
-0.9 |
16.6 |
5.7 |
77.7 |
10.9 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
12.2 |
13.8 |
74.0 |
-1.6 |
12.1 |
11.4 |
76.5 |
0.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
13.4 |
11.3 |
75.3 |
2.0 |
12.5 |
10.7 |
76.8 |
1.8 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
14.3 |
9.0 |
76.7 |
5.2 |
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
29.3 |
11.4 |
59.3 |
17.8 |
35.2 |
6.5 |
58.3 |
28.7 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
29.7 |
8.6 |
61.7 |
21.1 |
35.0 |
5.7 |
59.3 |
29.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
21.2 |
22.2 |
56.6 |
-1.1 |
34.3 |
6.1 |
59.6 |
28.3 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
24.6 |
19.3 |
56.1 |
5.3 |
30.6 |
14.8 |
54.7 |
15.8 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
26.5 |
13.6 |
59.9 |
12.8 |
31.2 |
11.7 |
57.1 |
19.5 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
33.1 |
8.8 |
58.0 |
24.3 |
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
30.8 |
4.6 |
64.6 |
26.2 |
29.9 |
4.4 |
65.7 |
25.6 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
28.5 |
5.4 |
66.1 |
23.2 |
29.6 |
4.1 |
66.3 |
25.6 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
28.4 |
10.7 |
60.9 |
17.7 |
27.7 |
5.5 |
66.8 |
22.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
27.4 |
8.7 |
63.9 |
18.7 |
29.3 |
5.5 |
65.3 |
23.8 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
28.3 |
6.4 |
65.4 |
21.9 |
27.3 |
5.7 |
66.9 |
21.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
28.8 |
5.7 |
65.5 |
23.1 |
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
22.8 |
7.5 |
69.6 |
15.3 |
25.4 |
6.2 |
68.4 |
19.2 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
23.2 |
7.2 |
69.6 |
16.0 |
25.5 |
5.0 |
69.5 |
20.5 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
19.6 |
12.7 |
67.7 |
6.9 |
23.0 |
5.7 |
71.3 |
17.3 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
19.0 |
12.4 |
68.6 |
6.6 |
21.4 |
8.1 |
70.5 |
13.2 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
23.1 |
9.5 |
67.4 |
13.7 |
22.1 |
8.8 |
69.1 |
13.4 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
23.1 |
6.0 |
70.9 |
17.0 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
17.8 |
7.0 |
75.2 |
10.8 |
20.1 |
4.1 |
75.8 |
16.0 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
17.9 |
6.0 |
76.1 |
11.9 |
19.3 |
5.0 |
75.7 |
14.2 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
14.3 |
10.0 |
75.8 |
4.3 |
17.4 |
4.4 |
78.2 |
13.0 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
14.6 |
7.4 |
78.1 |
7.2 |
18.7 |
6.0 |
75.3 |
12.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
16.9 |
6.1 |
76.9 |
10.8 |
17.7 |
5.9 |
76.4 |
11.7 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
18.1 |
6.4 |
75.4 |
11.7 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
8.6 |
3.9 |
87.6 |
4.7 |
9.0 |
3.0 |
88.0 |
6.0 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
8.2 |
4.0 |
87.8 |
4.3 |
9.5 |
3.5 |
87.0 |
6.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
6.9 |
4.1 |
89.1 |
2.8 |
13.1 |
3.5 |
83.5 |
9.6 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
7.5 |
5.0 |
87.6 |
2.5 |
9.2 |
4.1 |
86.7 |
5.1 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
7.2 |
4.4 |
88.4 |
2.8 |
7.3 |
4.3 |
88.4 |
3.0 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
7.9 |
4.0 |
88.1 |
4.0 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 17: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Finance |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
21.3 |
5.6 |
73.1 |
-15.7 |
22.3 |
4.8 |
73.0 |
-17.5 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
22.4 |
4.9 |
72.7 |
-17.6 |
20.2 |
5.8 |
74.0 |
-14.4 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
21.3 |
8.1 |
70.6 |
-13.1 |
22.5 |
7.1 |
70.4 |
-15.4 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
16.9 |
8.2 |
74.9 |
-8.7 |
18.5 |
8.4 |
73.1 |
-10.0 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
15.0 |
8.4 |
76.6 |
-6.6 |
15.0 |
7.1 |
77.9 |
-7.9 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
12.7 |
6.6 |
80.6 |
-6.1 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 18: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Materials |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
46.8 |
4.8 |
48.4 |
-41.9 |
42.1 |
3.5 |
54.3 |
-38.6 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
46.4 |
3.1 |
50.5 |
-43.3 |
37.2 |
3.5 |
59.2 |
-33.7 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
42.4 |
7.1 |
50.5 |
-35.3 |
31.4 |
3.8 |
64.8 |
-27.6 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
37.2 |
11.1 |
51.7 |
-26.1 |
37.0 |
6.2 |
56.8 |
-30.8 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
41.1 |
7.1 |
51.8 |
-34.1 |
35.6 |
5.6 |
58.8 |
-30.0 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
38.9 |
5.3 |
55.7 |
-33.6 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 19: Assessment and Expectations for Salary/Other Remuneration |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
28.5 |
1.8 |
69.7 |
-26.7 |
22.8 |
1.4 |
75.8 |
-21.4 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
38.8 |
1.6 |
59.6 |
-37.2 |
34.0 |
1.1 |
64.9 |
-32.9 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
38.6 |
2.6 |
58.8 |
-36.0 |
34.5 |
0.9 |
64.6 |
-33.7 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
30.6 |
3.6 |
65.8 |
-27.0 |
25.0 |
1.8 |
73.2 |
-23.2 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
27.1 |
2.3 |
70.6 |
-24.8 |
25.1 |
3.0 |
71.9 |
-22.1 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
35.8 |
2.7 |
61.5 |
-33.1 |
‘Decrease’ in Salary / other remuneration is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 20: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
17.5 |
13.1 |
69.3 |
4.4 |
19.4 |
7.1 |
73.5 |
12.3 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
17.1 |
10.5 |
72.4 |
6.6 |
19.5 |
8.5 |
72.0 |
11.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
13.8 |
21.4 |
64.8 |
-7.6 |
15.5 |
8.4 |
76.1 |
7.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
12.0 |
21.6 |
66.4 |
-9.6 |
18.6 |
14.0 |
67.3 |
4.6 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
16.4 |
13.9 |
69.7 |
2.5 |
15.2 |
13.0 |
71.9 |
2.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
18.0 |
9.7 |
72.3 |
8.3 |
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 21: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
16.2 |
25.5 |
58.3 |
-9.3 |
18.7 |
16.7 |
64.5 |
2.0 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
16.1 |
24.1 |
59.8 |
-8.0 |
17.8 |
17.0 |
65.1 |
0.8 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
13.5 |
36.1 |
50.4 |
-22.6 |
21.9 |
14.5 |
63.6 |
7.4 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
12.3 |
34.4 |
53.3 |
-22.1 |
17.6 |
26.1 |
56.3 |
-8.5 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
15.8 |
27.4 |
56.8 |
-11.6 |
16.3 |
26.4 |
57.3 |
-10.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
17.5 |
20.4 |
62.1 |
-2.9 |
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 22: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4:2018-19 |
1,258 |
33.9 |
11.5 |
54.7 |
22.4 |
43.2 |
6.5 |
50.3 |
36.7 |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
35.1 |
10.5 |
54.4 |
24.6 |
42.5 |
5.6 |
51.9 |
36.9 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
24.5 |
25.4 |
50.1 |
-0.8 |
41.1 |
6.0 |
52.9 |
35.2 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
26.4 |
22.9 |
50.8 |
3.5 |
37.3 |
15.6 |
47.1 |
21.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
31.6 |
15.8 |
52.6 |
15.7 |
35.8 |
13.2 |
50.9 |
22.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
38.6 |
10.4 |
50.9 |
28.2 |
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here. |
Table 23: Business Sentiments |
Quarter |
Business Assessment Index (BAI) |
Business Expectations Index (BEI) |
Q4:2018-19 |
107.2 |
116.2 |
Q1:2019-20 |
108.4 |
113.5 |
Q2:2019-20 |
92.5 |
112.8 |
Q3:2019-20 |
93.0 |
102.2 |
Q4:2019-20 |
102.2 |
105.0 |
Q1:2020-21 |
|
108.8 |
Special Tables: Summary Results of Quick Survey (48 respondents) during March 18-20, 2020: Assessment for Q4:2019-20 and Expectations for Q1:2020-21
Table 24: Comparison of net responses based on quick survey with full survey results of previous round |
Parameters |
Assessment period |
Expectations period |
Q3:2019-20 |
Q4:2019-20 |
Q4:2019-20 |
Q1:2020-21 |
Production |
0.4 |
-45.8 |
17.2 |
-37.5 |
Order Books |
0.3 |
-46.5 |
16.6 |
-41.9 |
Employment |
-1.6 |
-10.4 |
1.8 |
-14.6 |
Capacity utilisation |
-8.3 |
-34.0 |
7.9 |
-40.4 |
Overall Business Situation |
3.5 |
-31.3 |
22.6 |
-35.4 |
Table 25: Comparison of net responses based on quick survey with responses from same cohort of respondents for round 89 |
Parameters |
Assessment period |
Expectations period |
Q4:2019-20 (based on responses to the regular IOS round 89) |
Q4:2019-20 (based on responses to quick repeat survey) |
Q1:2020-21 (based on responses to the regular IOS round 89) |
Q1:2020-21 (based on responses to quick repeat survey) |
Production |
2.2 |
-45.8 |
13.0 |
-37.5 |
Order Books |
9.5 |
-46.5 |
16.3 |
-41.9 |
Employment |
0.0 |
-10.4 |
4.3 |
-14.6 |
Capacity utilisation |
2.2 |
-34.0 |
22.2 |
-40.4 |
Overall Business Situation |
0.0 |
-31.3 |
26.1 |
-35.4 |
|