RbiSearchHeader

Press escape key to go back

पिछली खोज

थीम
थीम
टेक्स्ट का साइज़
टेक्स्ट का साइज़
S3

RbiAnnouncementWeb

RBI Announcements
RBI Announcements

असेट प्रकाशक

83643785

Inflation Expectations Survey of Households; June 2012 (Round 28)

The findings of 28th round of Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for the April-June 2012 quarter, conducted during June 1 to June 10, 2012 are presented here. The survey captures the inflation expectations of 4,000 urban households across 12 cities for the next three-month and for the next one-year. These expectations are based on their individual consumption baskets and hence, these rates should not be considered as predictors of any official measure of inflation. The households’ inflation expectations provide useful directional information on near-term inflationary pressures and also supplement other economic indicators to get a better indication of future inflation. The survey results are those of the respondents and are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India.

The percentage of respondents expecting price rise in next three-month and in next one-year have gone up, mainly influenced by movements in food prices. The three-month ahead and one-year ahead mean inflation expectations at 12.0 per cent and 12.8 per cent, respectively, exhibit marginal rise of 30 basis points as compared with the last round of the survey. However, three-month and one-year ahead inflation expectations based on median inflation rate have remained at the same level as compared with the previous round. Perception of the current inflation has gone up by 30 basis points as compared with the previous round. The, three-month and one-year ahead inflation expectations are higher than the perceived current inflation rate by 70 and 150 basis points, respectively. As in the past rounds, daily workers and housewives expect higher inflation rates compared with other categories. On the aspect of awareness, 28.2 per cent of the respondents felt that RBI is taking necessary action to control inflation, of which, 42.7 per cent felt that RBI's action is effective.

I. Introduction

Reserve Bank of India has been conducting Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) on a quarterly basis, since September 2005. The survey elicits qualitative and quantitative responses for three-month ahead and one-year ahead period on expected price changes and inflation. Inflation expectations of households (HHs) are subjective assessments and are based on their individual consumption baskets and therefore, may be different from the official inflation numbers released periodically by the government. Again, they may not be treated as forecast of any official measure of inflation, though these inflation expectations provide useful inputs on directional movements of future inflation.

II. Sample Coverage and Information Sought

The survey is conducted simultaneously in 12 cities that cover adult respondents of 18 years and above. The major metropolitan cities, viz., Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai are represented by 500 households each, while another eight cities, viz., Jaipur, Lucknow, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Patna, Guwahati, Bengaluru and Hyderabad are represented by 250 households each. The respondents having a view on perceived current inflation are well spread across the cities to provide a good geographical coverage. The male and female respondents in the group are approximately in the ratio of 3:2. The sample coverage in terms of occupational category-wise representation is nearly as per the target (Table 1).

The survey schedule is organised into seven blocks covering the respondent profile (block 1), general and product-wise price expectations (block 2 and 3), feedback on RBI's action to control inflation (block 4), current and expected inflation rate (block 5), amount paid for the purchase of major food items during last one month (block 6) and the expectations on changes in income/wages (block 7).

The response options for price changes are (i) price increase more than current rate, (ii) price increase similar to current rate, (iii) price increase less than current rate, (iv) no change in prices, and (v) decline in prices. The inflation rates are collected in intervals - the lowest being ‘less than 1 per cent’ and the highest being ‘16 per cent and above’ with 100 basis point size for all intermediate classes.

III. Survey Results

III.1 General Price Expectations

  • The percentages of respondents expecting price increase in three-month ahead and one-year ahead have increased over previous round and stand at about 99 per cent in the present survey round.

  • The percentage of respondents expecting increase in general prices by ‘more than the current rate’ for three-month ahead and one-year ahead period have gone up to 83.6 per cent and 84.4 per cent, respectively, from 75.6 per cent and 78.8 per cent in the previous round (January-March 2012) (Table 2.1).

III. 2 Product Group-wise Price Expectations

  • Product group-wise price expectations reflect similar trends, i.e. the percentage of respondents expecting  price increase in  three-month ahead and in  one-year ahead period have gone up vis-à-vis the last round for food products, non-food products, household durables, housing and cost of services (Table 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5 and 2.6).

  • Moreover, proportion of households expecting price increase three-month ahead and one-year ahead by ‘more than the current rate’ has risen noticeably for all product groups, whereas there is a decrease in proportion of respondents expecting a rise in prices at ‘similar to current rate’ for all product groups.

III.3 Coherence between General and Product Group-wise Price Expectations

  • As in the past rounds, the general price expectations are observed to be consistently aligned with food price expectations than with other product groups. On an average, perceptions of more than 90 per cent of the respondents are appeared to have been driven by expected changes in food prices for arriving at the general price expectations (Table 3 and Table 4).

  • Further, sharp increase in coherence between general price expectations and various other product groups, except housing and cost of services for three-month ahead period, are observed in the current survey round as compared with previous round. The association of general price expectation which was consistently lower with household durables prices in the previous rounds has surged steeply in the current survey round (Table 3 and Table 4).

III.4 Inflation Expectations

  • The three-month ahead and one-year ahead inflation expectations based on mean inflation rate reported by 4,000 households have moved up by 30 basis points each to 12.0 per cent and 12.8 per cent, respectively, from 11.7 per cent and 12.5 per cent in the last round. However, three-month and one-year ahead inflation expectations based on median inflation rate have remained same at 11.5 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively, as compared with previous round (Table 5 and Chart 1).

Chart 1 : Households Inflation Expectations – Current, Three-month Ahead and One-year Ahead

1
  • The current perceived mean inflation has also increased by 30 basis points vis-à-vis corresponding rates in the previous round.

Chart 2: Households Inflation Expectations - vis-à-vis Official Inflation Numbers

2
  • Households expect inflation to rise further by 70 and 150 basis points during next three-month and next one-year respectively from their perceived current rate of 11.3 per cent.

  • For a large part of the survey history, the households' perceived current inflation rate remained between the WPI and CPI-IW inflation rates. However, from September 2010 round onwards, it is higher than these inflation rates (Chart 2).

  • Based on 10,000 re-samples using simple random sampling with replacement, the 99% bootstrap confidence intervals provide an indication of the precision of point estimates for the population mean inflation expectations (Table 6).

III. 5 Variations in Responses

  • Over different rounds of the survey, the variations in the responses in terms of standard deviation were generally observed to be lower for the perceived current inflation rate as compared with the expectations. However, in the last three rounds of the survey, the variations in perceived current rate are observed to be higher than that in the expectations (Table 7).

  • Variation in consumption baskets and thereby the variability in responses for inflation expectations may partly be explained by different classificatory factors (viz., gender, age-group, city and category) of respondents over different rounds.

  • An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) carried out over different rounds has revealed that ‘city’ has always been a significant source of variation in each round followed by occupational ‘category’.  This observation holds true for the current round also (Table 8).

  • Survey shows that daily workers and housewives tend to have marginally higher level of inflation expectations based on mean inflation rate as well as median inflation rate. No visible pattern has emerged from age-wise profile of respondents (Table 9).

  • City-wise, inflation expectations are found to be the highest in Jaipur and the lowest in Kolkata, based on both mean inflation rate as well as median inflation rate for this round (Table 9).

III.6 Cross-tabulation of Current Inflation and Future Expectations

  • Though the proportion of respondents perceiving inflation to be at double digit has not changed much, the proportion of those expecting the same for three-month ahead and one-year ahead periods have moved up as compared with those in the last round. 

  • In particular, 51.8 per cent (51.7 per cent in previous round) of respondents perceive double digit current inflation. Similarly, 65.2 per cent (63.0 per cent in previous round) and 77.0 per cent (70.0 per cent in previous round) of the respondents with some idea about future inflation expect double digit inflation rates for three-month ahead and one-year ahead periods (Table 10 , Table 11 and Chart 3).

  • A cross tabulation of the current inflation perception with the future inflation expectations indicates that among the 51.8 per cent respondents who perceive the current inflation in double digit, more than 98 per cent expect that it would remain at similar levels in next three months or in next one year (Table 10 and Table 11).

Chart 3 : Relationship in the Perception Level of Current Inflation with Future Expectations

3

III.7 Awareness on Reserve Bank of India's Action to Control Inflation

  • On the feedback of the Reserve Bank action to control inflation and its impact, the survey finds that 57.0 per cent (60.6 per cent in previous round) of respondents are aware that Reserve Bank takes action to control inflation. Among these, 28.2 per cent (27.3 per cent in previous round) have felt that Reserve Bank is taking necessary action (Chart 4), of which, 42.7 per cent think that the action has an impact on controlling inflation.

Chart 4 : Respondents’ view on RBI's Action to Control Inflation

4
  • While financial sector employees are mostly aware of the Reserve Bank's role in controlling inflation, daily workers are largely unaware (Chart 5).

  • Among the respondents who has felt that the Reserve Bank is taking necessary action to control inflation, majority of the self-employed and others respondents have felt that the Reserve Bank’s action has an impact on inflation control (Table 12).

Chart 5: Category-wise Awareness on RBI's Action on Inflation Control and views on its Impact

5

III.8 Expectations in Change of Income/Wages

  • Out of 2,228 respondents in the wage earners/self-employed/daily workers categories, 55.8 per cent have reported increase in wages/income in the past one year. 65.4 per cent do not expect any change in their income/wage in next three months. However, 74.1 per cent feel their income/wages will increase in next one-year (Table 13).

  • Among the respondents who have reported wages/income increase in past one year, the highest per cent (67.4) are among financial sector employees and the least per cent (47.2) are among daily workers.

  • Among various occupations, 86.4 per cent of financial sector employees, 76.7 per cent of other employees, 71.4 per cent of self-employed and 62.6 per cent of daily workers expect increase in income in next one year.


Table 1: Respondents’ Profile (Category): Share in Total Sample

Category of Respondents

Share in Total (%)

Target Share (%)

Financial Sector Employees

9.2

10.0

Other Employees

16.6

15.0

Self-employed

21.0

20.0

Housewives

29.9

30.0

Retired Persons

8.9

10.0

Daily Workers

9.0

10.0

Others

5.5

5.0

Note: The above sample proportion is for the quarter ended June 2012 survey


Table 2: Percentage of Respondents - Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three-month and One-year Ahead

Table 2.1: General

Round No./survey period
(quarter ended) →

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Options

Three-month ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

95.7

95.3

96.5

98.6

96

98.7

97.3

96.1

98.2

99.0

Price increase more than current rate

66.9

72.7

72.2

74.3

72.9

71.8

75.8

73.4

75.6

83.6

Price increase similar to current rate

20

20

21

22

20.4

19.8

15.4

13.2

15.9

11.2

Price increase less than current rate

8.8

2.6

3.3

2.3

2.7

7.1

6.0

9.6

6.7

4.2

No change in prices

3.4

4.2

2.9

1.1

3.5

1.2

2.2

3.0

1.6

1.0

Decline in price

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.9

0.2

0.1

Options

One-year ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

96.5

95.2

95.6

98.9

96.1

98.7

96.0

97.1

98.3

99.5

Price increase more than current rate

62.8

70.8

70.4

77.4

73.4

73.3

73.5

76.9

78.8

84.4

Price increase similar to current rate

19.8

18.7

19.7

17.9

18.6

18.0

16.7

12.6

14.0

10.5

Price increase less than current rate

13.9

5.7

5.6

3.6

4.2

7.4

5.9

7.6

5.5

4.6

No change in prices

2.6

3.8

3.5

0.9

3.5

1.3

3.3

2.5

1.6

0.4

Decline in price

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.3

0.3

0

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.1


Table 2.2: Food Products

Round No./survey period
(quarter ended) →

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

10-Mar

10-Jun

10-Sep

10-Dec

11-Mar

11-Jun

11-Sep

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Options

Three-month ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

95.9

95.8

96.7

98.1

95.4

98.6

97.3

95.3

98.2

98.8

Price increase more than current rate

70.4

74.9

74.7

73.1

69.4

72.0

74.2

70.4

69.8

80.8

Price increase similar to current rate

15.5

17.7

18

21.3

21

17.5

17.2

16.7

21.2

14.3

Price increase less than current rate

10

3.2

4

3.7

5.1

9.1

5.9

8.2

7.2

3.7

No change in prices

3.1

3.5

2.3

1.4

3.8

1.2

1.9

3.4

1.6

1.1

Decline in price

1

0.7

1

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.9

1.3

0.3

0.1

Options

One-year ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

96.8

95.6

95.7

98.6

95.9

98.6

95.8

96.8

98.2

99.4

Price increase more than current rate

65.9

72.8

71.7

76.4

75.5

73.6

72

73.7

74.4

82.5

Price increase similar to current rate

16.5

16.9

17.8

17.8

16.6

17.2

19

15.8

18.6

12.6

Price increase less than current rate

14.5

5.9

6.2

4.4

3.9

7.9

4.8

7.4

5.2

4.3

No change in prices

2.3

3.3

3.2

1.1

3.6

1.3

3.3

2.7

1.7

0.5

Decline in price

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.9

0.5

0.2

0.1


Table 2.3: Non Food Products

Round No./survey period
(quarter ended) →

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

10-Mar

10-Jun

10-Sep

10-Dec

11-Mar

11-Jun

11-Sep

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Options

Three-month ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

94

92.9

95.4

95.9

95

98

95.6

94.3

97.5

97.8

Price increase more than current rate

57.4

60.1

64.4

58.8

58.4

65.6

67.1

66.1

63.7

72.6

Price increase similar to current rate

28

29.4

27.3

33.2

31.3

25

21.5

18.3

24.3

20.3

Price increase less than current rate

8.7

3.4

3.7

3.9

5.3

7.4

7.0

9.9

9.5

4.9

No change in prices

4.8

6.3

3.9

0.5

4.4

1.9

3.8

4.9

2.4

2.2

Decline in price

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.1

0.7

0.9

0.2

0.2

Options

One-year ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

94.7

92.8

94.6

97.5

94.7

97.8

95.2

96.2

98.1

99.3

Price increase more than current rate

53

59.7

64

65.2

59.9

66.9

66.4

67.5

68.5

79.9

Price increase similar to current rate

27.6

26.4

24.9

28.1

29.2

24.0

22.7

20.8

22.6

15.2

Price increase less than current rate

14.1

6.7

5.7

4.2

5.6

7.0

6.1

8.0

7.0

4.2

No change in prices

4.2

5.9

4.4

2.2

4.6

2

4.1

3.3

1.9

0.6

Decline in price

1.1

1.3

1

0.4

0.7

0.1

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.1


Table 2.4: Household Durables

Round No./survey period
(quarter ended) →

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

10-Mar

10-Jun

10-Sep

10-Dec

11-Mar

11-Jun

11-Sep

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Options

Three-month ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

86.4

87.1

89.7

91.9

90.4

91.7

91

86.9

90.0

94.3

Price increase more than current rate

44.1

45.1

45.8

45.5

47

49.0

50.5

53.6

50.7

63.5

Price increase similar to current rate

27.2

30.5

32.9

28.9

28

30.6

26.4

19.5

25.7

22.4

Price increase less than current rate

15.1

11.6

11

17.5

15.4

12.1

14.1

13.8

13.6

8.4

No change in prices

8.8

9.1

6.3

5.9

5.9

6.7

5.8

10.8

8.5

5.1

Decline in price

4.8

3.8

4.1

2.4

3.8

1.7

3.3

2.3

1.5

0.6

Options

One-year ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

85.2

87.2

89

94.4

91.3

92.8

91.5

90.6

91.9

96.3

Price increase more than current rate

43.2

46.6

46.3

48.6

49.6

52.0

52.2

54.6

52.4

66.9

Price increase similar to current rate

25.4

30.1

31.8

32.5

29

25.7

26.0

22.6

25.7

18.8

Price increase less than current rate

16.6

10.6

11

13.3

12.8

15.1

13.3

13.4

13.8

10.6

No change in prices

9.6

8.0

6.7

3.8

5.7

5.4

6.2

7.8

7.0

3.4

Decline in price

5.3

4.8

4.3

1.9

3.0

1.9

2.3

1.7

1.2

0.4


Table 2.5: Housing Prices

Round No./survey period
(quarter ended) →

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

10-Mar

10-Jun

10-Sep

10-Dec

11-Mar

11-Jun

11-Sep

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Options

Three-month ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

95.2

96.1

96

97

94.5

95.2

97

95.5

96.3

96.4

Price increase more than current rate

60.4

70.8

64.6

73.1

73.5

65.4

73.5

67.4

70.4

73.0

Price increase similar to current rate

25.4

21

24.8

21.3

18.3

23.5

18.2

18.2

19.5

18.3

Price increase less than current rate

9.5

4.3

6.7

2.6

2.7

6.4

5.4

10.0

6.4

5.1

No change in prices

3.5

3.1

2.8

2.1

4.7

4.5

2.2

3.8

3.3

3.2

Decline in price

1.3

0.9

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.3

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.5

Options

One-year ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

94.1

96.1

95.3

97.9

94.8

97.6

95.8

96.1

97.7

98.9

Price increase more than current rate

61

72

65.9

75.5

72.1

70.4

70.2

67.3

73.4

76.9

Price increase similar to current rate

21.7

19.1

21.6

19.4

20.1

21.7

20.0

20.6

19.3

16.8

Price increase less than current rate

11.4

5

7.9

3

2.7

5.6

5.6

8.2

5.0

5.2

No change in prices

4.6

2.7

3.2

1.4

4.6

2

3.3

3.5

2.1

0.9

Decline in price

1.3

1.2

1.5

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.9

0.5

0.3

0.2


Table 2.6 : Cost of Services

Round No./survey period
(quarter ended) →

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

10-Mar

10-Jun

10-Sep

10-Dec

11-Mar

11-Jun

11-Sep

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Options

Three-month ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

89.9

94.1

94.2

94.1

91.6

96.2

95.3

91.9

95.8

96.4

Price increase more than current rate

58.6

63.2

59.2

61.4

62.1

61.0

68.1

58.7

67.3

73.0

Price increase similar to current rate

23.9

26.2

28.6

28.9

26.4

26.2

20.3

21.2

20.3

18.3

Price increase less than current rate

7.5

4.8

6.4

3.8

3.1

9.1

6.8

12.1

8.2

5.1

No change in prices

6.7

4.8

5.2

4.5

7.7

3.8

4.0

7.4

4.0

3.2

Decline in price

3.4

1.1

0.6

1.4

0.7

0.0

0.8

0.7

0.3

0.5

Options

One-year ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

89.9

94.2

94.3

95.2

91.2

97.3

95.2

93.6

97.1

98.1

Price increase more than current rate

57.2

63.2

58

64.6

62.6

62.7

66.3

65.3

69.6

74.0

Price increase similar to current rate

23

24.9

29.5

25.7

24.4

25.3

23.4

18.6

19.8

18.5

Price increase less than current rate

9.8

6.1

6.8

4.9

4.2

9.3

5.4

9.8

7.7

5.6

No change in prices

6.9

4.6

4.9

4.1

8.2

2.6

4.2

5.9

2.8

2.0

Decline in price

3.2

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.1

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.1


Table 3: Percentage of Respondents Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three-month Ahead

(percentage of respondents)

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Food

Non-Food

Household durables

Housing

Cost of services

19

Mar-10

87.4

81.4

66.5

78.1

76.6

20

Jun-10

89.9

82.4

63.6

80.2

80.8

21

Sep-10

91.4

86.1

64.8

79.2

76.7

22

Dec-10

92.3

77.3

58.9

82.5

76.6

23

Mar-11

85.5

78.9

62.5

82.5

76.4

24

Jun-11

88.5

83.0

68.1

80.4

80.0

25

Sep-11

88.8

86.2

68.0

84.4

85.2

26

Dec-11

87.9

82.4

67.6

74.4

74.7

27

Mar-12

87.7

82.7

65.4

84.1

83.7

28

Jun-12

90.5

84.5

73.2

82.8

82.6


Table 4: Percentage of Respondents Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: One-year Ahead

(percentage of respondents)

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Food

Non-Food

Household Durables

Housing

Cost of services

19

Mar-10

89.9

83.6

67.3

79.7

76.2

20

Jun-10

91.7

83.2

67.2

79.4

81.1

21

Sep-10

93.4

88.0

66.8

81.0

76.3

22

Dec-10

91.7

83.5

62.4

83.0

83.0

23

Mar-11

89.8

81.6

68.1

82.4

80.6

24

Jun-11

94.8

86.6

70.4

81.6

81.6

25

Sep-11

92.4

87.2

71.1

85.7

86.3

26

Dec-11

92.3

84.5

68.0

78.1

81.2

27

Mar-12

91.8

84.0

65.7

83.9

85.9

28

Jun-12

92.5

88.0

77.1

85.1

87.1


Table 5: Household Inflation Expectations -
Current, Three-month Ahead and One-year Ahead

Survey Round

Survey Quarter

Inflation rate in Per cent

Current

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Mean

Median

Mean

Median

Mean

Median

17

Sep-09

8.2

6.5

8.7

7.5

9.2

8.5

18

Dec-09

11.1

11.5

11.6

12.5

11.9

13.5

19

Mar-10

10.3

9.5

10.6

10.5

11.0

11.5

20

Jun-10

11.1

10.5

11.4

11.5

11.9

12.5

21

Sep-10

12.1

11.5

12.3

12.5

12.7

12.5

22

Dec-10

11.8

11.5

12.4

12.5

13.1

13.5

23

Mar-11

11.5

10.5

11.9

11.5

12.7

12.5

24

Jun-11

11.2

10.5

11.8

11.5

12.9

13.5

25

Sep-11

11.7

10.5

12.2

11.5

12.9

13.5

26

Dec-11

11.9

11.5

12.4

12.5

13.3

13.5

27

Mar-12

11.0

10.5

11.7

11.5

12.5

12.5

28

Jun-12

11.3

10.5

12.0

11.5

12.8

12.5


Table 6: 99% Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (BCI) based on 10,000 Resamples

Current

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

99% BCI for Mean

Interval width

99% BCI for Mean

Interval width

99% BCI for Mean

Interval width

(11.11, 11.43)

0.32

(11.88, 12.19)

0.31

(12.69,12.96)

0.27


Table 7: Variability in Responses in Various Rounds

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Inflation rate

Current

Three-month Ahead

One-year Ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

18

Dec-09

11.1

4.9

11.6

4.9

11.9

5.1

19

Mar-10

10.3

4.4

10.6

4.7

11.0

4.8

20

Jun-10

11.1

3.6

11.4

4.1

11.9

4.2

21

Sep-10

12.1

3.2

12.3

3.6

12.7

3.8

22

Dec-10

11.8

3.5

12.4

3.7

13.1

3.6

23

Mar-11

11.5

3.1

11.9

3.7

12.7

3.6

24

Jun-11

11.2

3.4

11.8

3.3

12.9

3.3

25

Sep-11

11.7

3.1

12.2

3.4

12.9

3.7

26

Dec-11

11.9

3.5

12.4

3.4

13.3

3.4

27

Mar-12

11.0

4.1

11.7

3.9

12.5

3.8

28

Jun-12

11.3

3.9

12.0

3.7

12.8

3.4


Table 8: Factors that Explain the Total Variability

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Current

Three-month Ahead

One-year Ahead

17

Sep-09

City, Age

City, Age

City, Age

18

Dec-09

City, Category, Age

City, ,Age

City

19

Mar-10

City, Category, Age

City, Category

City, Category

20

Jun-10

City, Category, Age

City, Category, Age

City, Category, Age

21

Sep-10

City, Gender, Category, Age

City, Gender, Category

City, Category

22

Dec-10

City, Category

City, Category

City, Category

23

Mar-11

City, Category

City, Category

City, Category, Age

24

Jun-11

City, Category

City, Category

City, Category

25

Sep-11

City, Gender, Category

City, Category

City, Gender, Category

26

Dec-11

City, Category

City, Category

City, Category

27

Mar-12

City, Gender, Category

City, Gender, Category

City, Gender, Category

28

Jun-12

City, Category

City, Category

City, Gender, Category

Note: Results based on exercise using Analysis of Variance.


Table 9: Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations for June 2012 Survey Round

 

Current

Three-month Ahead

One-year Ahead

Mean

Median

Std. Dev

Mean

Median

Std. Dev

Mean

Median

Std. Dev

Gender-wise

Male

11.1

10.5

3.9

11.9

11.5

3.6

12.7

12.5

3.3

Female

11.6

10.5

4.0

12.2

11.5

3.8

13.0

12.5

3.5

Category-wise

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Sector Employees

10.7

9.5

3.7

11.8

11.5

3.5

12.5

12.5

3.2

Other Employees

11.0

9.5

4.0

11.8

10.5

3.7

12.6

12.5

3.4

Self-Employed

11.0

9.5

3.9

11.6

11.5

3.8

12.6

12.5

3.5

Housewives

11.7

10.5

4.0

12.4

11.5

3.7

13.1

13.5

3.4

Retired Persons

11.1

10.5

3.9

12.1

11.5

3.5

12.7

12.5

3.4

Daily Workers

11.9

11.5

3.9

12.7

12.5

3.5

13.4

13.5

3.3

Other category

11.2

10.5

3.8

12.0

11.5

3.7

12.8

12.5

3.3

Age-wise

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up to 25 years

11.6

10.5

4.0

12.3

11.5

3.7

13.2

13.5

3.3

25 to 30 years

11.0

9.5

3.8

11.8

11.5

3.7

12.7

12.5

3.3

30 to 35 years

11.1

9.5

3.9

11.8

11.5

3.7

12.7

12.5

3.4

35 to 40 years

11.4

10.5

4.0

12.2

11.5

3.7

12.9

12.5

3.4

40 to 45 years

11.1

9.5

4.0

11.8

10.5

3.7

12.7

12.5

3.3

45 to 50 years

11.1

9.5

4.0

11.9

11.5

3.8

12.7

12.5

3.6

50 to 55 years

11.5

10.5

4.0

12.2

11.5

3.8

12.9

12.5

3.5

55 to 60 years

11.6

10.5

4.1

12.3

11.5

3.5

13.0

13.5

3.4

60 years and above

11.3

10.5

4.0

12.2

11.5

3.6

12.8

12.5

3.6

City-wise

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mumbai

15.5

16.5

2.2

15.4

16.5

3.4

16.1

16.5

2.2

Delhi

10.0

9.5

3.7

10.8

10.5

3.5

12.0

11.5

3.2

Chennai

10.2

10.5

1.7

11.1

11.5

1.8

10.9

11.5

2.4

Kolkata

7.4

7.5

1.1

8.3

8.5

1.3

9.1

8.5

1.9

Bangalore

13.6

16.5

3.7

14.1

16.5

3.3

14.5

16.5

3.0

Hyderabad

11.1

11.5

3.7

11.9

12.5

3.4

12.1

12.5

3.4

Ahmedabad

7.4

7.5

1.2

9.0

9.5

1.2

10.5

10.5

1.1

Lucknow

14.1

15.5

3.0

14.8

16.5

2.4

15.6

16.5

1.7

Jaipur

16.1

16.5

1.7

15.9

16.5

2.4

16.3

16.5

1.2

Bhopal

9.2

9.5

1.5

11.0

10.5

1.7

12.4

12.5

2.4

Patna

14.7

16.5

3.0

15.1

16.5

2.5

15.6

16.5

1.8

Guwahati

8.3

7.5

1.9

9.5

10.5

3.2

11.6

11.5

2.3

All

11.3

10.5

3.9

12.0

11.5

3.7

12.8

12.5

3.4


Table 10: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three-month Ahead Inflation Expectations

(Number of respondents)

 

Three-month ahead inflation rate (per cent)

Current
inflation
rate
(per
cent)

 

<1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

No idea

Total

<1

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

1-2

2

 

5

1

1

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

2-3

 

 

 

3

4

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

10

3-4

1

 

 

 

2

3

 

 

 

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

10

4-5

2

 

 

 

2

20

11

6

1

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

44

5-6

4

 

 

 

2

11

57

28

2

2

2

1

 

 

 

1

 

2

112

6-7

7

 

 

 

 

1

39

170

45

16

1

1

 

 

 

1

 

3

284

7-8

4

 

 

 

 

1

2

66

290

174

73

9

3

1

 

 

2

9

634

8-9

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

59

203

38

6

1

2

 

1

 

1

313

9-10

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

96

305

86

9

4

2

1

1

 

506

10-11

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

50

209

54

11

4

2

4

 

339

11-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

17

109

18

6

1

3

 

156

12-13

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

112

24

7

1

 

156

13-14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

45

20

8

 

84

14-15

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

21

71

45

 

147

15-16

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

10

80

 

93

>=16

12

 

 

1

2

 

1

 

1

2

 

1

5

3

 

1

1069

 

1098

Total

47

1

5

5

13

36

110

273

399

498

476

330

194

164

103

116

1215

15

4000

Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who perceived current inflation in double digit and also expressed double digit in the next three-month ahead.


Table 11: Cross-tabulation of Current and One-year Ahead Inflation Expectations

(Number of respondents)

 

One-year ahead inflation rate (per cent)

Current
inflation
rate
(per
cent)

 

<1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

No idea

Total

<1

 

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

1-2

1

 

 

3

1

 

1

1

1

1

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

11

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

2

2

1

 

 

 

1

 

2

 

 

2

 

10

3-4

1

 

 

 

1

 

1

1

 

 

1

 

1

 

 

 

3

1

10

4-5

 

 

 

 

1

5

10

7

2

10

4

2

 

 

 

1

2

 

44

5-6

2

 

 

 

1

12

28

20

11

21

8

1

1

1

 

 

4

2

112

6-7

2

 

 

 

 

5

46

52

69

60

35

5

3

 

 

2

1

4

284

7-8

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

67

79

137

176

83

49

12

4

2

4

13

634

8-9

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

11

39

59

106

56

27

5

3

3

2

1

313

9-10

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15

78

73

158

90

48

20

8

13

 

506

10-11

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

17

58

46

99

40

34

21

19

2

339

11-12

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

4

27

26

54

11

17

14

 

156

12-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

2

20

26

58

25

23

 

156

13-14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

12

6

22

41

 

84

14-15

1

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

6

19

118

 

147

15-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

89

 

93

>=16

6

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

1

1

2

 

 

 

1

1

1081

3

1098

Total

20

1

1

3

4

24

100

161

218

384

470

381

320

201

144

125

1417

26

4000

Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who perceived current inflation in double digit and also expressed double digit in the next one-year ahead.


Table 12: Category-wise Responses on the Impact of RBI’s Action on Inflation Control

Category of Respondents

Impact of RBI's action on inflation control (percent of respondents*)

Yes

No

No Idea

Financial Sector Employees

40.9

48.7

10.4

Other Employees

38.9

51.7

9.4

Self-employed

45.8

45.1

9.1

Housewives

42.5

46.6

11.0

Retired Persons

41.6

49.5

8.9

Daily Workers

45.0

31.7

23.3

Other Category

50.0

37.9

12.1

* Respondents who felt that RBI is taking necessary action to control inflation


Table 13 : Respondent's Expectation on Change in Wage/Income level

(Percentage of Response)

Category of Respondents

Change in income since last year

Change in income in three-month ahead period

Change in income in one-year ahead period

Increase

Same

Decrease

Increase

Same

Decrease

Increase

Same

Decrease

Financial Sector Employees

67.4

31.3

1.4

36.4

62.5

1.1

86.4

12.8

0.8

Other Employees

60.2

37.8

2.0

31.8

67.0

1.2

76.7

22.3

1.1

Total Employees

62.8

35.5

1.7

33.4

65.4

1.2

80.1

18.9

1.0

Self- Employed

50.9

38.9

10.3

29.2

64.1

6.7

71.4

22.8

5.8

Daily Workers

47.2

48.0

4.5

27.7

68.4

3.6

62.6

33.8

3.4

Total

55.8

38.8

5.4

30.9

65.4

3.6

74.1

22.8

3.2

RbiTtsCommonUtility

प्ले हो रहा है
सुनें

संबंधित एसेट

आरबीआई-इंस्टॉल-आरबीआई-सामग्री-वैश्विक

RbiSocialMediaUtility

आरबीआई मोबाइल एप्लीकेशन इंस्टॉल करें और लेटेस्ट न्यूज़ का तुरंत एक्सेस पाएं!

Scan Your QR code to Install our app

RbiWasItHelpfulUtility

क्या यह पेज उपयोगी था?