आज, भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक ने जनवरी 2020 चक्र के उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण (CCS)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। ये सर्वेक्षण 13 बड़े शहरों – अहमदाबाद, बेंगलुरु, भोपाल, चेन्नई, दिल्ली, गुवाहाटी, हैदराबाद, जयपुर, कोलकाता, लखनऊ, मुंबई, पटना और तिरुवनंतपुरम में आयोजित किया गया था। इसमें सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, समग्र मूल्य स्थिति और पारिवारिक इकाइयों की आय और व्यय के संबंध में 5,389 पारिवारिक इकाइयों की धारणाओं और अपेक्षाओं के लिए प्रतिक्रियाएं प्राप्त की गईं। विशेष: I. एक साल पहले के मुक़ाबले, जनवरी 2020 में, मौजूदा स्थिति सूचकांक (CSI) में गिरावट के साथ उपभोक्ता विश्वास और खराब हुआ; हालांकि, भावी अपेक्षाओं का सूचकांक (FEI)2 सकारात्मक क्षेत्र में बना रहा तथा पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर के मुक़ाबले अगले वर्ष में मामूली सुधार का संकेत दिखा (चार्ट 1)।
नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें। II. एक साल पहले की स्थिति (टेबल 1, 3 और 5) की तुलना में सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, मूल्य स्तर और घरेलू आय पर वर्तमान धारणा कमजोर बनी हुई है; हालांकि, पिछले दौर के मुक़ाबले रोजगार पर एक साल आगे की उम्मीदों में मामूली सुधार हुआ (तालिका 2)। III. अधिकांश परिवारों ने पिछले एक वर्ष के दौरान कीमतों और खर्च में वृद्धि महसूस की और वे अगले एक वर्ष (तालिका 6) में खर्च में और वृद्धि की उम्मीद करते हैं; परिवारों ने एक वर्ष पहले (तालिका 8) की तुलना में गैर-आवश्यक वस्तुओं पर कम खर्च की सूचना दी।
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
36.7 |
20.2 |
43.1 |
-6.4 |
59.9 |
15.8 |
24.3 |
35.6 |
| Mar-19 |
46.2 |
21.3 |
32.5 |
13.7 |
66.4 |
15.8 |
17.8 |
48.6 |
| May-19 |
38.8 |
23.6 |
37.7 |
1.1 |
61.4 |
17.7 |
20.9 |
40.5 |
| Jul-19 |
37.4 |
24.2 |
38.4 |
-1.0 |
59.4 |
16.0 |
24.6 |
34.8 |
| Sep-19 |
33.5 |
18.6 |
47.9 |
-14.4 |
53.2 |
15.0 |
31.8 |
21.4 |
| Nov-19 |
30.0 |
18.4 |
51.6 |
-21.6 |
48.9 |
16.5 |
34.7 |
14.2 |
| Jan-20 |
27.1 |
18.0 |
54.9 |
-27.8 |
48.8 |
14.3 |
36.9 |
11.9 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
35.6 |
20.1 |
44.3 |
-8.7 |
60.3 |
17.1 |
22.7 |
37.6 |
| Mar-19 |
41.1 |
21.7 |
37.2 |
3.9 |
65.3 |
15.9 |
18.9 |
46.4 |
| May-19 |
33.7 |
22.1 |
44.2 |
-10.5 |
59.3 |
17.6 |
23.1 |
36.2 |
| Jul-19 |
32.5 |
21.9 |
45.6 |
-13.1 |
56.7 |
17.5 |
25.8 |
30.9 |
| Sep-19 |
28.0 |
19.5 |
52.5 |
-24.5 |
51.2 |
15.4 |
33.4 |
17.8 |
| Nov-19 |
24.4 |
18.1 |
57.5 |
-33.1 |
46.3 |
17.7 |
36.0 |
10.3 |
| Jan-20 |
24.6 |
17.8 |
57.7 |
-33.1 |
48.4 |
16.3 |
35.4 |
13.0 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
84.3 |
10.9 |
4.8 |
-79.5 |
71.6 |
15.9 |
12.5 |
-59.1 |
| Mar-19 |
77.8 |
16.4 |
5.8 |
-72.0 |
68.7 |
20.5 |
10.9 |
-57.8 |
| May-19 |
81.6 |
14.1 |
4.3 |
-77.3 |
70.3 |
18.7 |
11.0 |
-59.3 |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.0 |
3.3 |
-78.4 |
73.9 |
16.1 |
10.0 |
-63.9 |
| Sep-19 |
86.1 |
10.6 |
3.3 |
-82.8 |
75.9 |
13.8 |
10.3 |
-65.6 |
| Nov-19 |
86.8 |
10.2 |
2.9 |
-83.9 |
78.0 |
14.1 |
7.9 |
-70.1 |
| Jan-20 |
90.6 |
7.6 |
1.9 |
-88.7 |
76.9 |
12.9 |
10.2 |
-66.7 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
77.9 |
15.2 |
6.9 |
-71.0 |
76.3 |
17.3 |
6.4 |
-69.9 |
| Mar-19 |
72.5 |
20.0 |
7.6 |
-64.9 |
72.9 |
20.8 |
6.3 |
-66.6 |
| May-19 |
74.4 |
20.8 |
4.8 |
-69.6 |
76.7 |
18.5 |
4.8 |
-71.9 |
| Jul-19 |
72.5 |
22.3 |
5.2 |
-67.3 |
77.8 |
18.0 |
4.1 |
-73.7 |
| Sep-19 |
74.2 |
19.5 |
6.3 |
-67.9 |
77.9 |
16.1 |
6.1 |
-71.8 |
| Nov-19 |
77.2 |
17.4 |
5.5 |
-71.7 |
77.3 |
17.3 |
5.4 |
-71.9 |
| Jan-20 |
84.9 |
11.2 |
4.0 |
-80.9 |
80.3 |
14.7 |
5.0 |
-75.3 |
| *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
29.8 |
48.2 |
22.0 |
7.8 |
63.5 |
30.4 |
6.2 |
57.3 |
| Mar-19 |
30.1 |
50.0 |
19.9 |
10.2 |
60.8 |
33.4 |
5.7 |
55.1 |
| May-19 |
29.0 |
50.2 |
20.8 |
8.2 |
58.9 |
35.1 |
6.0 |
52.9 |
| Jul-19 |
25.8 |
51.3 |
22.9 |
2.9 |
55.4 |
37.7 |
6.9 |
48.5 |
| Sep-19 |
25.0 |
48.3 |
26.7 |
-1.7 |
53.0 |
37.4 |
9.6 |
43.4 |
| Nov-19 |
24.1 |
49.2 |
26.7 |
-2.6 |
52.8 |
38.9 |
8.3 |
44.5 |
| Jan-20 |
21.9 |
51.2 |
26.9 |
-5.0 |
51.9 |
38.9 |
9.2 |
42.7 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
73.8 |
22.7 |
3.5 |
70.3 |
77.3 |
18.7 |
4.0 |
73.3 |
| Mar-19 |
70.1 |
26.8 |
3.1 |
67.0 |
77.5 |
19.9 |
2.6 |
74.9 |
| May-19 |
68.6 |
28.0 |
3.4 |
65.2 |
74.7 |
22.5 |
2.9 |
71.8 |
| Jul-19 |
71.7 |
25.0 |
3.4 |
68.3 |
76.8 |
20.1 |
3.2 |
73.6 |
| Sep-19 |
74.1 |
22.0 |
3.8 |
70.3 |
77.0 |
19.0 |
4.0 |
73.0 |
| Nov-19 |
73.2 |
23.4 |
3.4 |
69.8 |
77.4 |
19.0 |
3.6 |
73.8 |
| Jan-20 |
76.3 |
20.5 |
3.2 |
73.1 |
78.7 |
17.3 |
4.0 |
74.7 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
82.4 |
14.5 |
3.1 |
79.3 |
83.5 |
13.0 |
3.4 |
80.1 |
| Mar-19 |
78.6 |
18.2 |
3.2 |
75.4 |
83.4 |
14.3 |
2.3 |
81.1 |
| May-19 |
80.0 |
17.1 |
2.9 |
77.1 |
80.7 |
16.5 |
2.8 |
77.9 |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.7 |
2.6 |
79.1 |
82.9 |
14.3 |
2.8 |
80.1 |
| Sep-19 |
83.8 |
13.6 |
2.6 |
81.2 |
83.0 |
13.7 |
3.3 |
79.7 |
| Nov-19 |
83.6 |
13.6 |
2.7 |
80.9 |
83.0 |
13.9 |
3.1 |
79.9 |
| Jan-20 |
85.3 |
12.2 |
2.6 |
82.7 |
83.7 |
12.9 |
3.4 |
80.3 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Dec-18 |
38.4 |
37.5 |
24.1 |
14.3 |
46.1 |
33.0 |
20.9 |
25.2 |
| Mar-19 |
36.3 |
43.3 |
20.4 |
15.9 |
46.1 |
37.6 |
16.3 |
29.8 |
| May-19 |
32.7 |
40.3 |
27.0 |
5.7 |
39.4 |
37.3 |
23.3 |
16.1 |
| Jul-19 |
31.0 |
44.9 |
24.1 |
6.9 |
36.2 |
42.2 |
21.6 |
14.6 |
| Sep-19 |
29.9 |
40.0 |
30.1 |
-0.2 |
34.7 |
39.2 |
26.0 |
8.7 |
| Nov-19 |
27.5 |
42.4 |
30.1 |
-2.6 |
33.4 |
43.0 |
23.5 |
9.9 |
| Jan-20 |
28.0 |
37.3 |
34.6 |
-6.6 |
34.3 |
37.8 |
27.9 |
6.4 |
|
