आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के नवंबर 2020 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविद -19 महामारी के चलते, यह सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में अक्टूबर 30 से नवंबर 10, 2020 के दौरान, जहाँ कहीं भी संभव हो सका फ़ील्ड पर साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से, अन्यत्र, टेलीफ़ोनिक साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम 5,897 शहरी परिवारों2 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं। विशेष : i. सितंबर 2020 के चक्र की तुलना में वर्तमान अवधि के लिए परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति की धारणा में 100 आधार अंकों से तीव्र गिरावट आई [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]। ii. तीन महीने आगे और एक वर्ष आगे के लिए मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएँ क्रमशः 30 और 20 आधार अंकों से कम हो गई, हालांकि वे उच्च स्तर पर बनी रहीं [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]। iii. अधिक परिवारों को अगले तीन महीने और आगे के एक वर्ष में सामान्य कीमतों में वृद्धि होने की उम्मीद है, लेकिन गैर-खाद्य उत्पादों की कीमतों में वृद्धि होने की उम्मीद करने वाले उत्तरदाताओं के अनुपात में मामूली गिरावट आई [तालिका 1a, तालिका 1b]।
नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Nov-19 |
May-20 |
Jul-20 |
Sep-20 |
Nov-20 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
80.7 |
0.90 |
85.3 |
0.73 |
83.5 |
0.92 |
81.6 |
0.78 |
83.3 |
0.85 |
Price increase more than current rate |
52.4 |
1.22 |
56.0 |
1.02 |
52.2 |
1.14 |
53.9 |
1.02 |
55.4 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.4 |
0.96 |
23.5 |
0.89 |
26.0 |
1.03 |
22.5 |
0.84 |
23.6 |
0.95 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.55 |
5.8 |
0.49 |
5.3 |
0.54 |
5.2 |
0.46 |
4.4 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
17.3 |
0.84 |
12.4 |
0.69 |
14.0 |
0.84 |
15.9 |
0.74 |
14.2 |
0.81 |
Decline in prices |
1.9 |
0.26 |
2.3 |
0.32 |
2.5 |
0.43 |
2.5 |
0.31 |
2.4 |
0.32 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
81.8 |
0.80 |
84.6 |
0.75 |
82.3 |
0.86 |
80.4 |
0.80 |
81.5 |
0.83 |
Price increase more than current rate |
54.8 |
1.14 |
58.6 |
1.00 |
54.7 |
1.08 |
52.6 |
1.00 |
54.7 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.0 |
0.85 |
20.0 |
0.82 |
21.9 |
0.89 |
21.2 |
0.81 |
20.3 |
0.90 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.0 |
0.54 |
6.0 |
0.49 |
5.7 |
0.47 |
6.6 |
0.51 |
6.5 |
0.59 |
No changes in prices |
12.3 |
0.65 |
10.7 |
0.64 |
13.2 |
0.75 |
14.3 |
0.70 |
11.6 |
0.67 |
Decline in prices |
5.9 |
0.48 |
4.7 |
0.45 |
4.5 |
0.56 |
5.3 |
0.46 |
6.9 |
0.54 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
75.3 |
0.93 |
76.7 |
0.88 |
79.1 |
0.99 |
75.8 |
0.87 |
74.8 |
0.99 |
Price increase more than current rate |
48.0 |
1.14 |
49.5 |
0.99 |
48.3 |
1.11 |
47.3 |
0.99 |
48.0 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.1 |
0.86 |
20.8 |
0.82 |
24.6 |
0.98 |
21.9 |
0.82 |
20.3 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.1 |
0.53 |
6.4 |
0.50 |
6.2 |
0.51 |
6.6 |
0.50 |
6.4 |
0.57 |
No changes in prices |
20.5 |
0.83 |
17.8 |
0.79 |
15.2 |
0.87 |
19.2 |
0.80 |
20.1 |
0.92 |
Decline in prices |
4.3 |
0.39 |
5.5 |
0.49 |
5.6 |
0.59 |
5.0 |
0.45 |
5.2 |
0.48 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
55.2 |
1.09 |
55.1 |
1.04 |
57.8 |
1.14 |
56.3 |
1.02 |
60.3 |
1.09 |
Price increase more than current rate |
35.4 |
1.06 |
33.6 |
0.96 |
34.7 |
1.07 |
35.0 |
0.96 |
38.2 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.2 |
0.73 |
16.4 |
0.76 |
17.6 |
0.87 |
15.8 |
0.74 |
16.2 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.6 |
0.44 |
5.1 |
0.44 |
5.4 |
0.48 |
5.5 |
0.47 |
5.8 |
0.59 |
No changes in prices |
29.1 |
0.93 |
29.7 |
0.94 |
28.4 |
1.00 |
30.7 |
0.94 |
27.4 |
1.00 |
Decline in prices |
15.8 |
0.73 |
15.2 |
0.76 |
13.8 |
0.86 |
13.1 |
0.69 |
12.3 |
0.71 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
68.5 |
1.09 |
48.6 |
1.01 |
46.9 |
1.08 |
51.8 |
0.98 |
60.7 |
1.12 |
Price increase more than current rate |
48.3 |
1.19 |
30.2 |
0.93 |
28.1 |
0.98 |
32.8 |
0.93 |
40.4 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.4 |
0.77 |
13.6 |
0.69 |
14.9 |
0.78 |
14.4 |
0.69 |
15.9 |
0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.8 |
0.41 |
4.8 |
0.45 |
3.9 |
0.39 |
4.6 |
0.43 |
4.4 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
24.0 |
0.99 |
30.3 |
0.93 |
29.9 |
1.03 |
29.1 |
0.91 |
25.9 |
1.01 |
Decline in prices |
7.4 |
0.53 |
21.1 |
0.83 |
23.2 |
0.95 |
19.1 |
0.78 |
13.4 |
0.84 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
65.8 |
1.05 |
68.3 |
0.97 |
70.1 |
1.06 |
70.3 |
0.91 |
70.4 |
1.02 |
Price increase more than current rate |
43.6 |
1.14 |
43.2 |
0.99 |
43.3 |
1.11 |
45.5 |
1.01 |
44.8 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.7 |
0.79 |
19.3 |
0.79 |
21.2 |
0.92 |
19.1 |
0.79 |
20.3 |
0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.5 |
0.46 |
5.9 |
0.46 |
5.6 |
0.49 |
5.7 |
0.47 |
5.3 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
29.5 |
1.01 |
27.4 |
0.93 |
25.7 |
0.99 |
25.8 |
0.88 |
25.2 |
0.98 |
Decline in prices |
4.7 |
0.43 |
4.4 |
0.42 |
4.2 |
0.52 |
3.9 |
0.38 |
4.4 |
0.44 |
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Nov-19 |
May-20 |
Jul-20 |
Sep-20 |
Nov-20 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
89.1 |
0.71 |
85.6 |
0.73 |
84.6 |
0.87 |
84.8 |
0.73 |
86.5 |
0.77 |
Price increase more than current rate |
64.0 |
1.25 |
57.1 |
1.00 |
55.9 |
1.12 |
59.6 |
1.00 |
59.5 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.5 |
0.96 |
23.8 |
0.88 |
24.3 |
0.93 |
20.4 |
0.82 |
22.9 |
0.92 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.6 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
4.4 |
0.46 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
4.1 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
8.9 |
0.64 |
11.9 |
0.67 |
12.9 |
0.82 |
12.1 |
0.67 |
10.3 |
0.69 |
Decline in prices |
2.0 |
0.28 |
2.5 |
0.33 |
2.5 |
0.35 |
3.1 |
0.35 |
3.2 |
0.39 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
86.2 |
0.74 |
77.3 |
0.86 |
75.3 |
1.00 |
77.3 |
0.85 |
77.7 |
0.97 |
Price increase more than current rate |
58.9 |
1.24 |
46.9 |
1.01 |
45.2 |
1.10 |
48.3 |
0.99 |
48.4 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.4 |
0.90 |
24.2 |
0.88 |
24.1 |
0.96 |
22.5 |
0.82 |
24.0 |
0.93 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.0 |
0.49 |
6.3 |
0.51 |
6.0 |
0.50 |
6.4 |
0.51 |
5.4 |
0.48 |
No changes in prices |
9.4 |
0.61 |
15.7 |
0.74 |
17.4 |
0.88 |
14.8 |
0.72 |
14.3 |
0.82 |
Decline in prices |
4.4 |
0.39 |
6.9 |
0.52 |
7.3 |
0.63 |
7.9 |
0.55 |
8.0 |
0.58 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
81.0 |
0.82 |
73.3 |
0.92 |
74.3 |
1.04 |
75.7 |
0.87 |
75.0 |
0.98 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.5 |
1.23 |
42.6 |
0.99 |
44.0 |
1.13 |
47.3 |
1.00 |
45.6 |
1.13 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.6 |
0.92 |
23.9 |
0.87 |
24.3 |
0.92 |
22.2 |
0.83 |
23.5 |
0.93 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.51 |
6.8 |
0.51 |
6.0 |
0.50 |
6.1 |
0.49 |
5.9 |
0.55 |
No changes in prices |
15.5 |
0.72 |
20.7 |
0.84 |
18.7 |
0.97 |
18.2 |
0.78 |
19.3 |
0.89 |
Decline in prices |
3.6 |
0.36 |
6.0 |
0.49 |
7.0 |
0.71 |
6.1 |
0.49 |
5.8 |
0.51 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
65.4 |
1.00 |
59.6 |
1.03 |
62.4 |
1.14 |
62.3 |
0.98 |
65.0 |
1.08 |
Price increase more than current rate |
42.7 |
1.16 |
34.8 |
0.99 |
35.6 |
1.08 |
38.8 |
0.98 |
39.9 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.1 |
0.80 |
19.1 |
0.79 |
21.1 |
0.91 |
18.4 |
0.77 |
19.7 |
0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.6 |
0.46 |
5.7 |
0.47 |
5.8 |
0.51 |
5.1 |
0.45 |
5.4 |
0.54 |
No changes in prices |
22.5 |
0.84 |
28.4 |
0.93 |
26.0 |
1.01 |
26.5 |
0.88 |
24.6 |
1.01 |
Decline in prices |
12.1 |
0.62 |
12.1 |
0.67 |
11.6 |
0.81 |
11.2 |
0.64 |
10.3 |
0.68 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.0 |
0.92 |
59.7 |
1.00 |
57.4 |
1.10 |
63.9 |
0.95 |
72.1 |
1.01 |
Price increase more than current rate |
57.1 |
1.20 |
36.9 |
0.98 |
34.7 |
1.10 |
42.0 |
0.99 |
47.8 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.1 |
0.85 |
17.3 |
0.77 |
18.4 |
0.88 |
17.4 |
0.75 |
19.8 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.9 |
0.41 |
5.5 |
0.46 |
4.3 |
0.43 |
4.6 |
0.43 |
4.5 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
13.9 |
0.76 |
25.1 |
0.89 |
26.1 |
1.01 |
23.8 |
0.85 |
19.2 |
0.86 |
Decline in prices |
6.1 |
0.48 |
15.2 |
0.73 |
16.5 |
0.83 |
12.2 |
0.67 |
8.7 |
0.65 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.9 |
0.87 |
74.4 |
0.91 |
75.6 |
1.06 |
76.8 |
0.86 |
77.2 |
0.98 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.7 |
1.23 |
44.6 |
0.98 |
46.1 |
1.11 |
48.5 |
1.01 |
49.0 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.3 |
0.86 |
23.1 |
0.85 |
23.7 |
0.90 |
22.0 |
0.83 |
22.2 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.51 |
6.7 |
0.50 |
5.8 |
0.50 |
6.3 |
0.50 |
6.1 |
0.55 |
No changes in prices |
15.9 |
0.77 |
22.1 |
0.87 |
20.5 |
0.97 |
19.6 |
0.81 |
18.6 |
0.91 |
Decline in prices |
3.2 |
0.36 |
3.5 |
0.38 |
3.9 |
0.57 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
4.2 |
0.45 |
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: November 2020 |
|
Current Perception |
Three Months ahead Expectation |
One Year ahead Expectation |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Overall |
9.5 |
0.11 |
8.8 |
0.18 |
10.4 |
0.11 |
10.1 |
0.09 |
9.8 |
0.13 |
10.1 |
0.11 |
Gender-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
9.7 |
0.13 |
9.0 |
0.30 |
10.5 |
0.14 |
10.1 |
0.11 |
9.7 |
0.16 |
10.1 |
0.16 |
Female |
9.4 |
0.15 |
8.7 |
0.24 |
10.3 |
0.15 |
10.1 |
0.15 |
9.8 |
0.19 |
10.1 |
0.15 |
Category-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financial Sector Employees |
9.4 |
0.43 |
8.9 |
0.78 |
10.6 |
0.44 |
10.2 |
0.66 |
9.9 |
0.50 |
10.4 |
0.40 |
Other Employees |
9.6 |
0.18 |
9.0 |
0.36 |
10.4 |
0.18 |
10.2 |
0.16 |
9.7 |
0.22 |
10.1 |
0.23 |
Self Employed |
9.8 |
0.20 |
9.1 |
0.43 |
10.5 |
0.20 |
10.2 |
0.14 |
9.8 |
0.24 |
10.2 |
0.17 |
Homemaker |
9.2 |
0.19 |
8.4 |
0.23 |
10.2 |
0.18 |
10.0 |
0.22 |
9.9 |
0.20 |
10.1 |
0.17 |
Retired Persons |
10.7 |
0.37 |
10.4 |
0.26 |
11.2 |
0.38 |
10.7 |
0.46 |
10.0 |
0.41 |
10.4 |
0.52 |
Daily Workers |
9.7 |
0.26 |
9.0 |
0.60 |
10.3 |
0.27 |
10.2 |
0.27 |
9.3 |
0.34 |
9.6 |
0.55 |
Other category |
9.2 |
0.26 |
8.2 |
0.36 |
10.1 |
0.26 |
9.6 |
0.38 |
9.7 |
0.29 |
9.9 |
0.32 |
Age Group-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Up to 25 years |
8.9 |
0.20 |
7.9 |
0.23 |
9.9 |
0.20 |
9.3 |
0.30 |
9.8 |
0.24 |
10.0 |
0.27 |
25 to 30 years |
9.1 |
0.18 |
8.4 |
0.28 |
10.0 |
0.19 |
9.6 |
0.42 |
9.3 |
0.23 |
9.4 |
0.48 |
30 to 35 years |
9.2 |
0.19 |
8.6 |
0.26 |
10.3 |
0.19 |
10.1 |
0.17 |
9.8 |
0.22 |
10.0 |
0.28 |
35 to 40 years |
9.6 |
0.21 |
9.2 |
0.49 |
10.5 |
0.20 |
10.2 |
0.17 |
10.0 |
0.23 |
10.3 |
0.18 |
40 to 45 years |
9.6 |
0.22 |
9.2 |
0.51 |
10.5 |
0.22 |
10.3 |
0.13 |
9.7 |
0.28 |
10.1 |
0.26 |
45 to 50 years |
10.2 |
0.24 |
10.0 |
0.37 |
10.8 |
0.24 |
10.4 |
0.16 |
9.7 |
0.31 |
10.1 |
0.32 |
50 to 55 years |
10.0 |
0.31 |
9.9 |
0.51 |
10.8 |
0.29 |
10.5 |
0.20 |
10.0 |
0.34 |
10.2 |
0.40 |
55 to 60 years |
9.8 |
0.34 |
9.0 |
0.63 |
10.6 |
0.34 |
10.3 |
0.27 |
9.6 |
0.40 |
9.8 |
0.58 |
60 years and above |
10.7 |
0.30 |
10.3 |
0.19 |
11.1 |
0.31 |
10.6 |
0.30 |
10.2 |
0.37 |
10.7 |
0.32 |
City-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ahmedabad |
8.5 |
0.28 |
7.8 |
0.49 |
9.8 |
0.28 |
9.5 |
0.58 |
9.4 |
0.35 |
9.8 |
0.54 |
Bengaluru |
7.9 |
0.39 |
6.1 |
0.51 |
9.6 |
0.38 |
8.3 |
0.48 |
10.0 |
0.35 |
9.7 |
0.55 |
Bhopal |
8.1 |
0.76 |
7.1 |
1.18 |
8.5 |
0.78 |
7.6 |
1.16 |
7.0 |
0.84 |
6.7 |
1.23 |
Bhubaneswar |
9.0 |
0.74 |
7.7 |
1.37 |
9.6 |
0.74 |
8.6 |
1.27 |
8.0 |
0.95 |
7.1 |
0.99 |
Chennai |
10.2 |
0.38 |
10.3 |
0.20 |
11.4 |
0.33 |
10.9 |
0.34 |
11.2 |
0.39 |
11.9 |
0.82 |
Delhi |
9.3 |
0.26 |
8.7 |
0.33 |
9.9 |
0.26 |
9.6 |
0.42 |
9.2 |
0.33 |
9.3 |
0.50 |
Guwahati |
11.3 |
0.54 |
10.2 |
0.83 |
11.7 |
0.47 |
11.2 |
0.79 |
11.3 |
0.66 |
11.8 |
0.95 |
Hyderabad |
10.0 |
0.45 |
9.6 |
0.98 |
11.4 |
0.43 |
11.0 |
0.70 |
11.2 |
0.40 |
11.8 |
0.82 |
Jaipur |
10.4 |
0.62 |
10.1 |
0.73 |
10.5 |
0.68 |
10.5 |
0.70 |
10.0 |
0.93 |
10.6 |
1.17 |
Kolkata |
11.2 |
0.41 |
10.6 |
0.41 |
11.7 |
0.41 |
12.3 |
1.45 |
10.6 |
0.43 |
10.8 |
0.99 |
Lucknow |
10.5 |
0.65 |
10.3 |
0.42 |
10.8 |
0.71 |
10.8 |
0.83 |
10.1 |
0.85 |
10.8 |
1.38 |
Mumbai |
10.3 |
0.27 |
9.5 |
0.52 |
11.1 |
0.27 |
10.4 |
0.24 |
9.3 |
0.35 |
9.8 |
0.55 |
Nagpur |
7.3 |
0.39 |
6.9 |
0.43 |
8.7 |
0.44 |
8.3 |
0.50 |
9.3 |
0.47 |
9.5 |
0.59 |
Patna |
9.0 |
0.86 |
8.5 |
0.61 |
9.6 |
0.92 |
8.9 |
0.82 |
8.0 |
1.02 |
8.0 |
0.75 |
Thiruvananthapuram |
7.1 |
0.74 |
5.5 |
0.65 |
8.1 |
0.71 |
7.0 |
1.06 |
8.4 |
0.87 |
7.7 |
1.36 |
Chandigarh |
9.9 |
0.63 |
10.1 |
0.36 |
9.8 |
0.59 |
10.0 |
0.38 |
9.2 |
0.91 |
9.7 |
0.82 |
Ranchi |
7.1 |
0.48 |
6.3 |
0.38 |
7.6 |
0.50 |
7.1 |
0.49 |
6.8 |
0.62 |
6.8 |
0.61 |
Raipur |
8.3 |
0.59 |
7.4 |
0.52 |
9.6 |
0.62 |
8.6 |
0.51 |
9.1 |
0.74 |
8.9 |
0.51 |
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses. |
Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations |
|
Current Perception |
Three Months ahead Expectation |
One Year ahead Expectation |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Nov-19 |
9.1 |
0.10 |
8.2 |
0.17 |
9.8 |
0.11 |
9.2 |
0.23 |
9.7 |
0.12 |
9.9 |
0.19 |
May-20 |
9.6 |
0.09 |
9.3 |
0.28 |
10.6 |
0.09 |
10.4 |
0.06 |
9.7 |
0.12 |
10.2 |
0.07 |
Jul-20 |
10.0 |
0.11 |
9.9 |
0.21 |
10.8 |
0.11 |
10.5 |
0.06 |
9.8 |
0.14 |
10.3 |
0.08 |
Sep-20 |
9.9 |
0.10 |
9.8 |
0.25 |
10.8 |
0.10 |
10.4 |
0.07 |
9.9 |
0.12 |
10.3 |
0.08 |
Nov-20 |
9.5 |
0.11 |
8.8 |
0.18 |
10.4 |
0.11 |
10.1 |
0.09 |
9.8 |
0.13 |
10.1 |
0.11 |
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses. |
Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Food |
Non-Food |
Households durables |
Housing |
Cost of services |
Three Months Ahead |
Nov-19 |
64.7 |
65.1 |
51.0 |
60.7 |
63.1 |
May-20 |
63.3 |
59.8 |
46.5 |
42.6 |
57.3 |
Jul-20 |
62.8 |
61.0 |
49.9 |
43.6 |
58.4 |
Sep-20 |
62.1 |
61.0 |
50.4 |
45.9 |
60.5 |
Nov-20 |
62.7 |
63.5 |
52.4 |
54.0 |
60.7 |
One Year Ahead |
Nov-19 |
73.9 |
70.9 |
57.8 |
69.7 |
72.3 |
May-20 |
62.3 |
59.5 |
50.9 |
50.3 |
62.3 |
Jul-20 |
63.9 |
64.5 |
55.2 |
51.2 |
65.7 |
Sep-20 |
63.0 |
64.8 |
55.5 |
53.6 |
66.6 |
Nov-20 |
66.4 |
65.9 |
56.7 |
62.1 |
68.9 |
Note: Figures are based on sample observations |
Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2020 |
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent) |
Current Inflation Rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-<2 |
2-<3 |
3-<4 |
4-<5 |
5-<6 |
6-<7 |
7-<8 |
8-<9 |
9-<10 |
10-<11 |
11-<12 |
12-<13 |
13-<14 |
14-<15 |
15-<16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
1-<2 |
3 |
21 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
2-<3 |
2 |
4 |
83 |
43 |
42 |
15 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
3-<4 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
90 |
43 |
51 |
15 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
220 |
4-<5 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
132 |
72 |
70 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
312 |
5-<6 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
401 |
128 |
197 |
82 |
18 |
91 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
983 |
6-<7 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
11 |
165 |
52 |
76 |
20 |
26 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
363 |
7-<8 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
9 |
4 |
220 |
73 |
53 |
72 |
3 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
459 |
8-<9 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
190 |
57 |
146 |
7 |
20 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
0 |
465 |
9-<10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
100 |
39 |
29 |
32 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
228 |
10-<11 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
30 |
5 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
447 |
60 |
150 |
38 |
11 |
191 |
85 |
0 |
1057 |
11-<12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
8 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
27 |
12-<13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
39 |
8 |
24 |
14 |
10 |
0 |
104 |
13-<14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
0 |
25 |
14-<15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
11 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
28 |
15-<16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
91 |
126 |
0 |
240 |
>=16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
31 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
25 |
1048 |
3 |
1134 |
Total |
15 |
31 |
129 |
174 |
251 |
618 |
403 |
510 |
446 |
265 |
879 |
112 |
274 |
69 |
63 |
356 |
1299 |
3 |
5897 |
Note: Figures are based on sample observations |
Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2020 |
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent) |
Current Inflation Rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-<2 |
2-<3 |
3-<4 |
4-<5 |
5-<6 |
6-<7 |
7-<8 |
8-<9 |
9-<10 |
10-<11 |
11-<12 |
12-<13 |
13-<14 |
14-<15 |
15-<16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
19 |
1-<2 |
12 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
2-<3 |
41 |
2 |
37 |
30 |
33 |
32 |
11 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
194 |
3-<4 |
27 |
0 |
4 |
56 |
26 |
48 |
28 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
220 |
4-<5 |
40 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
84 |
49 |
65 |
14 |
24 |
8 |
12 |
0 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
312 |
5-<6 |
133 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
220 |
99 |
169 |
98 |
28 |
146 |
12 |
13 |
5 |
6 |
19 |
14 |
0 |
983 |
6-<7 |
36 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
8 |
113 |
45 |
73 |
20 |
30 |
6 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
363 |
7-<8 |
77 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
120 |
52 |
55 |
91 |
9 |
17 |
7 |
4 |
12 |
6 |
0 |
459 |
8-<9 |
58 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
108 |
49 |
138 |
22 |
38 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
0 |
465 |
9-<10 |
29 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
63 |
32 |
26 |
35 |
10 |
8 |
12 |
8 |
0 |
228 |
10-<11 |
126 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
16 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
290 |
30 |
111 |
50 |
27 |
219 |
160 |
3 |
1057 |
11-<12 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
27 |
12-<13 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
22 |
9 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
0 |
104 |
13-<14 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
0 |
25 |
14-<15 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
15 |
0 |
28 |
15-<16 |
28 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
57 |
137 |
0 |
240 |
>=16 |
164 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
16 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
912 |
7 |
1134 |
Total |
801 |
18 |
61 |
100 |
164 |
397 |
326 |
380 |
374 |
236 |
773 |
111 |
262 |
105 |
83 |
401 |
1292 |
13 |
5897 |
Note: Figures are based on sample observations |
|