| उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने अपने द्विमासिक उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण (सीसीएस) [1] के जनवरी 2024 दौर के परिणाम जारी किए। यह सर्वेक्षण 19 प्रमुख शहरों में सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, समग्र मूल्य स्थिति और स्वयं की आय एवं व्यय पर वर्तमान धारणाएं (एक साल पहले की तुलना में) और एक वर्ष आगे की अपेक्षाएं प्राप्त करता है। सर्वेक्षण का नवीनतम दौर 2-11 जनवरी, 2024 के दौरान आयोजित किया गया था, जिसमें 6,058 उत्तरदाताओं को शामिल किया गया था। इस सैंपल में महिला उत्तरदाताओं का हिस्सा 53.1 प्रतिशत रहा है। मुख्य विशेषताएँ:
- वर्तमान सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति और रोजगार की स्थिति के उत्तरदाताओं के बेहतर मूल्यांकन के कारण वर्तमान अवधि के लिए उपभोक्ता विश्वास अपने सुधार पथ पर जारी है; वर्तमान स्थिति सूचकांक (सीएसआई)[2] नवंबर 2023 में 92.2 से बढ़कर जनवरी 2024 में 95.1 हो गया है (चार्ट 1; टेबल 1 और 2)।
- आगे बढ़ते हुए, परिवारों को अपेक्षा है कि आगामी वर्ष में सामान्य आर्थिक और रोजगार की स्थिति में सुधार जारी रहेगा। हालाँकि, लगातार चार दौर में सुधार के बाद, भविष्य की आय की स्थितियों पर विश्वास पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर की तुलना में हल्का कम है (टेबल 1, 2 और 5)।
- भविष्य की उम्मीदों का सूचकांक (एफईआई) ने महामारी की शुरुआत के बाद से एक नया शिखर दर्ज किया है जो उपभोक्ता विश्वास में वृद्धि को दर्शाता है। (चार्ट 1)।
|
Summary based on Net Responses[4] |
| Main Variables |
Current Perception compared with one-year ago |
One year ahead Expectations compared with current situation |
| Nov-23 |
Jan-24 |
Change |
Nov-23 |
Jan-24 |
Change |
| Economic Situation |
-11.3 |
-2.7 |
|
25.7 |
33.7 |
|
| Employment |
-12.4 |
-6.0 |
|
26.9 |
34.7 |
|
| Price Level |
-89.9 |
-88.9 |
|
-72.3 |
-71.4 |
|
| Income |
4.5 |
4.2 |
|
51.8 |
49.4 |
|
| Spending |
70.1 |
68.6 |
|
70.9 |
69.2 |
|
| Consumer Confidence Index |
92.2 |
95.1 |
|
120.6 |
123.1 |
|
|
|
Positive Sentiments with sign of improvement compared to last round |
|
Negative Sentiments with sign of improvement compared to last round |
|
|
Positive Sentiments with sign of deterioration compared to last round |
|
Negative Sentiments with sign of deterioration compared to last round |
|
|
Positive Sentiments with no change compared to last round |
|
Negative Sentiments with no change compared to last round |
Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
28.3 |
19.6 |
52.1 |
-23.7 |
50.2 |
16.6 |
33.2 |
17.0 |
| Mar-23 |
31.4 |
16.9 |
51.7 |
-20.4 |
49.9 |
15.1 |
35.0 |
15.0 |
| May-23 |
32.1 |
19.0 |
48.9 |
-16.8 |
51.0 |
15.8 |
33.2 |
17.8 |
| Jul-23 |
30.4 |
18.5 |
51.1 |
-20.7 |
51.1 |
15.1 |
33.8 |
17.2 |
| Sep-23 |
36.1 |
19.9 |
44.0 |
-7.9 |
56.8 |
15.1 |
28.1 |
28.6 |
| Nov-23 |
33.1 |
22.5 |
44.4 |
-11.3 |
54.3 |
17.2 |
28.5 |
25.7 |
| Jan-24 |
37.5 |
22.3 |
40.2 |
-2.7 |
59.2 |
15.3 |
25.5 |
33.7 |
Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
30.0 |
20.1 |
49.9 |
-19.9 |
51.8 |
18.0 |
30.2 |
21.6 |
| Mar-23 |
32.2 |
19.9 |
47.9 |
-15.7 |
52.9 |
17.1 |
30.1 |
22.8 |
| May-23 |
32.1 |
20.2 |
47.7 |
-15.6 |
52.1 |
18.7 |
29.2 |
22.9 |
| Jul-23 |
30.8 |
21.0 |
48.2 |
-17.5 |
51.4 |
18.3 |
30.3 |
21.1 |
| Sep-23 |
34.0 |
21.8 |
44.2 |
-10.2 |
55.8 |
18.1 |
26.2 |
29.6 |
| Nov-23 |
32.3 |
23.0 |
44.7 |
-12.4 |
53.6 |
19.7 |
26.8 |
26.9 |
| Jan-24 |
35.3 |
23.4 |
41.3 |
-6.0 |
58.7 |
17.4 |
24.0 |
34.7 |
Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
93.6 |
5.0 |
1.3 |
-92.3 |
83.0 |
10.1 |
7.0 |
-76.1 |
| Mar-23 |
93.8 |
5.2 |
1.0 |
-92.9 |
84.3 |
9.0 |
6.7 |
-77.5 |
| May-23 |
92.2 |
6.4 |
1.4 |
-90.8 |
82.7 |
10.0 |
7.3 |
-75.4 |
| Jul-23 |
92.7 |
6.0 |
1.3 |
-91.4 |
80.9 |
10.2 |
8.9 |
-72.0 |
| Sep-23 |
91.8 |
6.4 |
1.8 |
-90.0 |
78.4 |
9.9 |
11.7 |
-66.8 |
| Nov-23 |
91.3 |
7.3 |
1.4 |
-89.9 |
81.0 |
10.2 |
8.8 |
-72.3 |
| Jan-24 |
90.8 |
7.2 |
2.0 |
-88.9 |
80.5 |
10.4 |
9.1 |
-71.4 |
Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)*
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
86.5 |
10.5 |
3.0 |
-83.6 |
80.3 |
15.5 |
4.1 |
-76.2 |
| Mar-23 |
86.5 |
10.0 |
3.5 |
-82.9 |
81.4 |
14.0 |
4.6 |
-76.8 |
| May-23 |
84.0 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
-80.6 |
81.8 |
14.1 |
4.1 |
-77.8 |
| Jul-23 |
84.5 |
11.8 |
3.7 |
-80.8 |
80.8 |
14.8 |
4.4 |
-76.4 |
| Sep-23 |
82.5 |
13.4 |
4.2 |
-78.3 |
79.4 |
15.8 |
4.8 |
-74.6 |
| Nov-23 |
81.8 |
13.6 |
4.6 |
-77.2 |
80.1 |
14.7 |
5.2 |
-75.0 |
| Jan-24 |
79.5 |
15.7 |
4.8 |
-74.7 |
77.2 |
17.8 |
5.0 |
-72.2 |
| *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
21.4 |
49.0 |
29.6 |
-8.3 |
54.5 |
38.7 |
6.9 |
47.6 |
| Mar-23 |
22.2 |
49.7 |
28.1 |
-5.9 |
54.1 |
38.4 |
7.5 |
46.7 |
| May-23 |
23.9 |
49.7 |
26.3 |
-2.4 |
53.8 |
39.4 |
6.9 |
46.9 |
| Jul-23 |
25.4 |
49.9 |
24.8 |
0.6 |
54.7 |
38.6 |
6.7 |
48.0 |
| Sep-23 |
25.0 |
49.8 |
25.2 |
-0.3 |
55.7 |
37.8 |
6.5 |
49.2 |
| Nov-23 |
27.2 |
50.1 |
22.7 |
4.5 |
57.9 |
36.0 |
6.1 |
51.8 |
| Jan-24 |
26.4 |
51.5 |
22.1 |
4.2 |
56.3 |
36.9 |
6.8 |
49.4 |
Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
73.9 |
20.6 |
5.5 |
68.4 |
75.5 |
19.8 |
4.7 |
70.8 |
| Mar-23 |
75.0 |
19.6 |
5.4 |
69.6 |
75.4 |
19.9 |
4.6 |
70.8 |
| May-23 |
73.4 |
21.3 |
5.3 |
68.1 |
73.8 |
21.7 |
4.6 |
69.2 |
| Jul-23 |
74.5 |
20.5 |
5.0 |
69.6 |
73.8 |
21.3 |
4.8 |
69.0 |
| Sep-23 |
74.6 |
20.2 |
5.2 |
69.4 |
75.2 |
20.3 |
4.6 |
70.6 |
| Nov-23 |
74.8 |
20.6 |
4.6 |
70.1 |
75.0 |
21.0 |
4.1 |
70.9 |
| Jan-24 |
73.2 |
22.3 |
4.5 |
68.6 |
74.2 |
20.9 |
5.0 |
69.2 |
Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
84.1 |
12.3 |
3.6 |
80.5 |
81.3 |
15.2 |
3.5 |
77.8 |
| Mar-23 |
85.3 |
11.5 |
3.2 |
82.1 |
81.7 |
14.8 |
3.5 |
78.2 |
| May-23 |
84.0 |
12.8 |
3.2 |
80.8 |
81.3 |
15.2 |
3.5 |
77.8 |
| Jul-23 |
85.3 |
11.8 |
3.0 |
82.3 |
81.0 |
15.5 |
3.5 |
77.5 |
| Sep-23 |
84.9 |
11.9 |
3.2 |
81.7 |
82.0 |
14.4 |
3.6 |
78.4 |
| Nov-23 |
85.7 |
11.4 |
2.9 |
82.7 |
82.3 |
14.4 |
3.4 |
78.9 |
| Jan-24 |
84.1 |
12.9 |
3.0 |
81.1 |
81.8 |
14.6 |
3.6 |
78.2 |
Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jan-23 |
22.1 |
35.2 |
42.8 |
-20.7 |
31.9 |
38.4 |
29.8 |
2.1 |
| Mar-23 |
25.2 |
34.8 |
40.0 |
-14.8 |
34.5 |
36.8 |
28.8 |
5.7 |
| May-23 |
25.8 |
38.2 |
36.1 |
-10.3 |
35.3 |
37.5 |
27.2 |
8.2 |
| Jul-23 |
26.6 |
36.9 |
36.5 |
-10.0 |
34.8 |
37.6 |
27.6 |
7.3 |
| Sep-23 |
23.4 |
38.5 |
38.2 |
-14.8 |
33.0 |
38.2 |
28.8 |
4.2 |
| Nov-23 |
25.2 |
36.6 |
38.2 |
-13.0 |
34.1 |
36.8 |
29.0 |
5.1 |
| Jan-24 |
27.2 |
36.2 |
36.6 |
-9.4 |
34.6 |
36.4 |
29.0 |
5.5 |
*****
[1] सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जो जरूरी नहीं कि रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा साझा किए गए हों। पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के परिणाम बैंक की वेबसाइट पर दिसंबर 08, 2023 को जारी किए गए थे।
[2] सीएसआई और एफईआई को क्रमशः आर्थिक स्थिति, आय, खर्च, रोजगार और वर्तमान अवधि (एक साल पहले की तुलना में) और एक साल आगे के लिए मूल्य स्तर पर शुद्ध प्रतिक्रियाओं के आधार पर संकलित किया जाता है। सीएसआई और एफईआई = 100 + उपरोक्त मापदंडों की शुद्ध प्रतिक्रियाओं का औसत।
|
