अप्रैल-जून 2020 के दौरान संचालित किए गए औद्योगिक परिदृश्य सर्वेक्षण (आइ ओ एस) के 90वें चक्र का परिणाम आज भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक ने जारी किया। इस सर्वेक्षण में क्यू1: 2020-21 के लिए भारतीय विनिर्माण कंपनियों द्वारा किए जानेवाले कारोबार के परिवेश और क्यू2: 2020-211 के लिए उनकी प्रत्याशाओं का गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन किया जाता है। सर्वेक्षण के इस चक्र में कुल 802 कंपनियों ने प्रत्युत्तर दिए। कोविद 19 महामारी के कारण व्याप्त अनिश्चितता की स्थिति को देखते हुए आगे की दो तिमाहियों और आगे के एक वर्ष के लिए प्रमुख मानदंडों के आधार पर परिदृश्य का मूल्यांकन करने के लिए सर्वेक्षण के इस चक्र में एक अतिरिक्त ब्लॉक सम्मिलित किया गया। विशेष: क. पहली तिमाही (Q1) का मूल्यांकन: 2020-21
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विनिर्माण कंपनियों ने 2020-21 की पहली तिमाही के लिए प्रमुख मांग संकेतकों यथा-उत्पादन, ऑर्डर बहियों और रोजगार की स्थितियों में गिरावट का नूल्यांकन किया; बाह्य मांग की धारणाएं भी निराशावादी थीं।
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समग्र वित्तीय स्थिति को लेकर भावनाएं निराशाजलक थीं; जो सामान्यतया आंतरिक निक्षेपों में आई कमी से प्रेरित थीं।
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उधार राशियों के ब्याज भुगतान और कच्ची सामग्री की खरीद से उत्पन्न लागत दबावों का मूल्यांकन नरमी दर्शा रहा था; वेतन व्ययों में भी कमी देखी गई।
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उत्तरदाताओं ने बिक्री मूल्यों में कमी और लाभ मार्जिन के घटने का समर्थन किया।
- कारोबार मूल्यांकन सूचकांक (BAI)2 2020-21 पिछली तिमाही में रहे 102.2 से लुढ़कते हुए पहली तिमाही (क्यू1) में अब तक के सर्वाधिक न्यून स्तर 55.3परपहुँचगया।
ग. दूसरी तिमाही (Q2) 2020-21 के लिए अपेक्षाएं:
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विनिर्माताओं को वर्ष 2020-21 की दूसरी तिमाही में उत्पादन और ऑर्डर बुक्स में सुधार होने की उम्मीद है, तथापि रोजगार और बाह्य मांग में दुर्बलता रहना अपेक्षित है।
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समग्र वित्तीय स्थिति का परिदृश्य कुछ आशावादिता का चित्रण भी करता है।
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उत्तरदाताओं ने कच्ची सामग्री की लागत में कमी और वेतन पर कम व्यय को ध्यान में रखते हुए बिक्री मूलयों की अपनी प्रत्याशाओं में बदलाव किए।
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2020-21 की दूसरी तिमाही में लाभ मार्जिन के संबंध में भावनाएं अत्यधिक निराशाजनक भी रहीं।
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वर्ष 2020-21 की दूसरी तिमाही में कारोबार की अपेक्षाओं का सूचकांक (BEI) बुरी तरह संकुचित होकर 99.5 पर था।
Table A: Summary of Net responses3 on Survey Parameters |
(per cent) |
Parameters |
Assessment period |
Expectations period |
Q4:2019-20 |
Q1:2020-21 |
Q1:2020-21 |
Q2:2020-21 |
Production |
13.8 |
-63.9 |
23.7 |
11.2 |
Order Books |
10.0 |
-54.9 |
18.4 |
8.0 |
Pending Orders |
14.4 |
41.2 |
11.6 |
26.0 |
Capacity Utilisation |
2.0 |
-61.6 |
11.3 |
7.6 |
Inventory of Raw Materials |
-5.1 |
-7.8 |
-2.9 |
-5.9 |
Inventory of Finished Goods |
-6.5 |
-12.6 |
-4.3 |
-7.6 |
Exports |
5.8 |
-41.7 |
11.0 |
-3.8 |
Imports |
4.7 |
-32.9 |
6.6 |
-1.0 |
Employment |
2.0 |
-28.6 |
5.2 |
-7.7 |
Financial Situation (Overall) |
12.8 |
-48.9 |
24.3 |
11.4 |
Availability of Finance (from internal accruals) |
13.7 |
-30.8 |
17.0 |
6.4 |
Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources) |
10.8 |
-3.0 |
11.7 |
10.6 |
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) |
2.8 |
-10.3 |
4.0 |
-2.0 |
Cost of Finance |
-6.6 |
-0.4 |
-6.1 |
-6.7 |
Cost of Raw Material |
-34.1 |
-29.3 |
-33.6 |
-32.0 |
Salary/ Other Remuneration |
-24.8 |
9.6 |
-33.1 |
-4.0 |
Selling Price |
2.5 |
-17.1 |
8.3 |
-6.0 |
Profit Margin |
-11.6 |
-56.8 |
-2.9 |
-26.8 |
Overall Business Situation |
15.7 |
-60.2 |
28.2 |
15.7 |
Note: Please see the excel file for time series data |
ग. तीसरी तिमाही (Q3): 2020-21 और पहली तिमाही (Q1): 2021-22 के लिए अपेक्षाएं
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विनिर्माताओं ने 2020-21 की तीसरी तिमाही के लिए प्रमुख संकेतकों में विशिष्ट सुधार का समर्थन किया है जो 2021-22 की पहली तिमाही में भी यथावत रहेगी।
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समग्र रूप से कारोबार की स्थितियों में 2021-22 की पहली तिमाही में क्रमशः सुधार होने की उम्मीद की गई है।
Table B: Business Expectations of Select Parameters for extended period – Net response |
(per cent) |
Parameters |
Round 89 |
Round 90 |
Q1:2020-21 |
Q2:2020-21 |
Q3:2020-21 |
Q1:2021-22 |
Overall Business Situation |
28.2 |
15.7 |
17.3 |
22.4 |
Production |
23.7 |
11.2 |
19.1 |
24.6 |
Order Books |
18.4 |
8.0 |
17.6 |
22.9 |
Capacity Utilisation |
11.3 |
7.6 |
20.0 |
20.6 |
Employment |
5.2 |
-7.7 |
5.0 |
10.7 |
Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
38.6 |
15.6 |
45.8 |
23.0 |
42.1 |
9.3 |
48.5 |
32.8 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
26.5 |
28.4 |
45.2 |
-1.9 |
40.1 |
11.0 |
48.9 |
29.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
28.7 |
28.3 |
43.1 |
0.4 |
34.8 |
21.0 |
44.2 |
13.9 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
33.6 |
19.8 |
46.6 |
13.8 |
35.4 |
18.2 |
46.4 |
17.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
8.3 |
72.2 |
19.5 |
-63.9 |
37.8 |
14.1 |
48.1 |
23.7 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
41.4 |
30.2 |
28.5 |
11.2 |
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. Note: The sum of components may not add up to total due to rounding off (This is applicable for all tables). |
Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order Books |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
34.1 |
15.4 |
50.5 |
18.8 |
38.5 |
8.6 |
52.8 |
29.9 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
27.4 |
30.2 |
42.5 |
-2.8 |
31.6 |
11.1 |
57.3 |
20.5 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
26.9 |
26.6 |
46.5 |
0.3 |
34.3 |
20.4 |
45.3 |
13.9 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
30.1 |
20.1 |
49.9 |
10.0 |
33.6 |
17.0 |
49.3 |
16.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
8.9 |
63.8 |
27.3 |
-54.9 |
33.5 |
15.1 |
51.4 |
18.4 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
36.4 |
28.4 |
35.3 |
8.0 |
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. |
Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
6.0 |
15.7 |
78.3 |
9.6 |
6.1 |
10.4 |
83.5 |
4.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
4.5 |
25.5 |
70.0 |
21.0 |
16.1 |
9.4 |
74.5 |
-6.7 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
3.4 |
25.5 |
71.1 |
22.1 |
3.9 |
18.3 |
77.8 |
14.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
4.1 |
18.5 |
77.4 |
14.4 |
3.7 |
19.5 |
76.8 |
15.9 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
6.1 |
47.3 |
46.6 |
41.2 |
4.6 |
16.2 |
79.1 |
11.6 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
5.8 |
31.8 |
62.4 |
26.0 |
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. |
Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
22.8 |
13.4 |
63.8 |
9.4 |
27.2 |
7.7 |
65.1 |
19.6 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
15.9 |
24.9 |
59.2 |
-9.0 |
23.1 |
9.2 |
67.7 |
13.9 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
17.5 |
25.8 |
56.7 |
-8.3 |
24.4 |
20.0 |
55.6 |
4.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
21.0 |
19.0 |
60.0 |
2.0 |
23.1 |
15.2 |
61.6 |
7.9 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
6.0 |
67.6 |
26.3 |
-61.6 |
25.5 |
14.2 |
60.3 |
11.3 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
36.2 |
28.6 |
35.2 |
7.6 |
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
9.6 |
14.8 |
75.7 |
-5.2 |
12.2 |
8.2 |
79.6 |
4.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
8.1 |
26.6 |
65.3 |
-18.6 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
82.0 |
0.3 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
6.6 |
26.9 |
66.5 |
-20.3 |
9.3 |
21.7 |
69.0 |
-12.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
7.6 |
21.6 |
70.7 |
-14.0 |
7.9 |
18.5 |
73.6 |
-10.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
2.7 |
63.6 |
33.7 |
-60.9 |
9.1 |
16.4 |
74.5 |
-7.3 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
5.8 |
39.2 |
55.0 |
-33.5 |
‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Assessment of Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
11.0 |
6.7 |
82.2 |
4.3 |
12.2 |
6.2 |
81.6 |
6.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
15.1 |
14.2 |
70.7 |
0.9 |
13.5 |
6.9 |
79.6 |
6.6 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
15.8 |
11.7 |
72.5 |
4.2 |
15.3 |
12.4 |
72.2 |
2.9 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
14.3 |
9.5 |
76.2 |
4.8 |
14.6 |
11.4 |
74.0 |
3.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
19.0 |
24.5 |
56.5 |
-5.6 |
13.7 |
8.8 |
77.5 |
4.9 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
18.7 |
17.3 |
64.0 |
1.3 |
‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic. |
Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for Exports |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
24.6 |
11.5 |
64.0 |
13.1 |
25.7 |
8.0 |
66.2 |
17.7 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
21.3 |
21.3 |
57.5 |
0.0 |
24.0 |
8.2 |
67.8 |
15.8 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
18.3 |
19.2 |
62.5 |
-0.9 |
24.3 |
17.0 |
58.7 |
7.3 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
20.1 |
14.3 |
65.5 |
5.8 |
22.4 |
13.8 |
63.9 |
8.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
8.7 |
50.4 |
40.9 |
-41.7 |
22.5 |
11.5 |
66.0 |
11.0 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
23.1 |
26.9 |
50.0 |
-3.8 |
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. |
Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Imports |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
18.2 |
8.3 |
73.4 |
9.9 |
19.2 |
6.2 |
74.6 |
13.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
16.0 |
14.5 |
69.6 |
1.5 |
18.4 |
7.4 |
74.2 |
11.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
13.2 |
12.3 |
74.5 |
0.9 |
18.1 |
11.7 |
70.2 |
6.4 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
16.0 |
11.3 |
72.7 |
4.7 |
15.7 |
10.2 |
74.1 |
5.4 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
7.6 |
40.5 |
51.8 |
-32.9 |
16.9 |
10.3 |
72.8 |
6.6 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
19.9 |
21.0 |
59.1 |
-1.0 |
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. |
Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for level of Raw Materials Inventory |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
13.9 |
5.7 |
80.4 |
-8.3 |
12.0 |
3.7 |
84.3 |
-8.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
17.1 |
8.4 |
74.5 |
-8.6 |
11.8 |
4.2 |
84.0 |
-7.7 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
13.9 |
7.7 |
78.4 |
-6.2 |
13.2 |
6.6 |
80.3 |
-6.6 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
12.9 |
7.8 |
79.3 |
-5.1 |
10.6 |
7.0 |
82.4 |
-3.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
21.3 |
13.5 |
65.2 |
-7.8 |
9.8 |
6.9 |
83.3 |
-2.9 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
15.5 |
9.7 |
74.8 |
-5.9 |
‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic. |
Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for level of Finished Goods Inventory |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
13.5 |
6.7 |
79.8 |
-6.8 |
10.5 |
4.9 |
84.6 |
-5.6 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
22.5 |
8.0 |
69.5 |
-14.5 |
13.0 |
6.0 |
81.0 |
-7.0 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
18.3 |
7.3 |
74.4 |
-11.0 |
15.7 |
5.0 |
79.3 |
-10.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
13.3 |
6.7 |
80.0 |
-6.5 |
12.9 |
6.2 |
80.9 |
-6.7 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
27.0 |
14.3 |
58.7 |
-12.6 |
10.4 |
6.2 |
83.4 |
-4.3 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
17.2 |
9.5 |
73.3 |
-7.6 |
‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic. |
Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Employment |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
15.9 |
7.3 |
76.8 |
8.6 |
17.1 |
4.8 |
78.1 |
12.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
13.4 |
14.2 |
72.4 |
-0.9 |
16.6 |
5.7 |
77.7 |
10.9 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
12.2 |
13.8 |
74.0 |
-1.6 |
12.1 |
11.4 |
76.5 |
0.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
13.4 |
11.3 |
75.3 |
2.0 |
12.5 |
10.7 |
76.8 |
1.8 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
3.9 |
32.5 |
63.7 |
-28.6 |
14.3 |
9.0 |
76.7 |
5.2 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
11.0 |
18.7 |
70.3 |
-7.7 |
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. |
Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
29.7 |
8.6 |
61.7 |
21.1 |
35.0 |
5.7 |
59.3 |
29.3 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
21.2 |
22.2 |
56.6 |
-1.1 |
34.3 |
6.1 |
59.6 |
28.3 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
24.6 |
19.3 |
56.1 |
5.3 |
30.6 |
14.8 |
54.7 |
15.8 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
26.5 |
13.6 |
59.9 |
12.8 |
31.2 |
11.7 |
57.1 |
19.5 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
8.7 |
57.6 |
33.6 |
-48.9 |
33.1 |
8.8 |
58.0 |
24.3 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
34.6 |
23.2 |
42.2 |
11.4 |
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic. |
Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
28.5 |
5.4 |
66.1 |
23.2 |
29.6 |
4.1 |
66.3 |
25.6 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
28.4 |
10.7 |
60.9 |
17.7 |
27.7 |
5.5 |
66.8 |
22.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
27.4 |
8.7 |
63.9 |
18.7 |
29.3 |
5.5 |
65.3 |
23.8 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
28.3 |
6.4 |
65.4 |
21.9 |
27.3 |
5.7 |
66.9 |
21.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
36.9 |
18.8 |
44.4 |
18.1 |
28.8 |
5.7 |
65.5 |
23.1 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
37.2 |
11.5 |
51.3 |
25.7 |
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. |
Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
23.2 |
7.2 |
69.6 |
16.0 |
25.5 |
5.0 |
69.5 |
20.5 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
19.6 |
12.7 |
67.7 |
6.9 |
23.0 |
5.7 |
71.3 |
17.3 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
19.0 |
12.4 |
68.6 |
6.6 |
21.4 |
8.1 |
70.5 |
13.2 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
23.1 |
9.5 |
67.4 |
13.7 |
22.1 |
8.8 |
69.1 |
13.4 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
7.2 |
38.0 |
54.8 |
-30.8 |
23.1 |
6.0 |
70.9 |
17.0 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
22.5 |
16.1 |
61.3 |
6.4 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
17.9 |
6.0 |
76.1 |
11.9 |
19.3 |
5.0 |
75.7 |
14.2 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
14.3 |
10.0 |
75.8 |
4.3 |
17.4 |
4.4 |
78.2 |
13.0 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
14.6 |
7.4 |
78.1 |
7.2 |
18.7 |
6.0 |
75.3 |
12.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
16.9 |
6.1 |
76.9 |
10.8 |
17.7 |
5.9 |
76.4 |
11.7 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
12.9 |
15.8 |
71.3 |
-3.0 |
18.1 |
6.4 |
75.4 |
11.7 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
20.4 |
9.8 |
69.8 |
10.6 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
8.2 |
4.0 |
87.8 |
4.3 |
9.5 |
3.5 |
87.0 |
6.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
6.9 |
4.1 |
89.1 |
2.8 |
13.1 |
3.5 |
83.5 |
9.6 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
7.5 |
5.0 |
87.6 |
2.5 |
9.2 |
4.1 |
86.7 |
5.1 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
7.2 |
4.4 |
88.4 |
2.8 |
7.3 |
4.3 |
88.4 |
3.0 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
3.2 |
13.5 |
83.3 |
-10.3 |
7.9 |
4.0 |
88.1 |
4.0 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
7.9 |
9.9 |
82.2 |
-2.0 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
Table 17: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Finance |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
22.4 |
4.9 |
72.7 |
-17.6 |
20.2 |
5.8 |
74.0 |
-14.4 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
21.3 |
8.1 |
70.6 |
-13.1 |
22.5 |
7.1 |
70.4 |
-15.4 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
16.9 |
8.2 |
74.9 |
-8.7 |
18.5 |
8.4 |
73.1 |
-10.0 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
15.0 |
8.4 |
76.6 |
-6.6 |
15.0 |
7.1 |
77.9 |
-7.9 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
16.3 |
15.9 |
67.8 |
-0.4 |
12.7 |
6.6 |
80.6 |
-6.1 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
17.6 |
10.9 |
71.5 |
-6.7 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic. |
Table 18: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Materials |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
46.4 |
3.1 |
50.5 |
-43.3 |
37.2 |
3.5 |
59.2 |
-33.7 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
42.4 |
7.1 |
50.5 |
-35.3 |
31.4 |
3.8 |
64.8 |
-27.6 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
37.2 |
11.1 |
51.7 |
-26.1 |
37.0 |
6.2 |
56.8 |
-30.8 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
41.1 |
7.1 |
51.8 |
-34.1 |
35.6 |
5.6 |
58.8 |
-30.0 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
39.9 |
10.7 |
49.4 |
-29.3 |
38.9 |
5.3 |
55.7 |
-33.6 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
37.8 |
5.7 |
56.5 |
-32.0 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic. |
Table 19: Assessment and Expectations for Salary/Other Remuneration |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
38.8 |
1.6 |
59.6 |
-37.2 |
34.0 |
1.1 |
64.9 |
-32.9 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
38.6 |
2.6 |
58.8 |
-36.0 |
34.5 |
0.9 |
64.6 |
-33.7 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
30.6 |
3.6 |
65.8 |
-27.0 |
25.0 |
1.8 |
73.2 |
-23.2 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
27.1 |
2.3 |
70.6 |
-24.8 |
25.1 |
3.0 |
71.9 |
-22.1 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
12.4 |
22.0 |
65.5 |
9.6 |
35.8 |
2.7 |
61.5 |
-33.1 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
16.5 |
12.5 |
70.9 |
-4.0 |
‘Decrease’ in Salary / other remuneration is optimistic. |
Table 20: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
17.1 |
10.5 |
72.4 |
6.6 |
19.5 |
8.5 |
72.0 |
11.0 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
13.8 |
21.4 |
64.8 |
-7.6 |
15.5 |
8.4 |
76.1 |
7.1 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
12.0 |
21.6 |
66.4 |
-9.6 |
18.6 |
14.0 |
67.3 |
4.6 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
16.4 |
13.9 |
69.7 |
2.5 |
15.2 |
13.0 |
71.9 |
2.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
9.5 |
26.6 |
64.0 |
-17.1 |
18.0 |
9.7 |
72.3 |
8.3 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
12.9 |
18.9 |
68.1 |
-6.0 |
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. |
Table 21: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
16.1 |
24.1 |
59.8 |
-8.0 |
17.8 |
17.0 |
65.1 |
0.8 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
13.5 |
36.1 |
50.4 |
-22.6 |
21.9 |
14.5 |
63.6 |
7.4 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
12.3 |
34.4 |
53.3 |
-22.1 |
17.6 |
26.1 |
56.3 |
-8.5 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
15.8 |
27.4 |
56.8 |
-11.6 |
16.3 |
26.4 |
57.3 |
-10.2 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
5.0 |
61.8 |
33.2 |
-56.8 |
17.5 |
20.4 |
62.1 |
-2.9 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
13.7 |
40.5 |
45.8 |
-26.8 |
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. |
Table 22: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation |
(Percentage responses) |
Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q1:2019-20 |
1,231 |
35.1 |
10.5 |
54.4 |
24.6 |
42.5 |
5.6 |
51.9 |
36.9 |
Q2:2019-20 |
481 |
24.5 |
25.4 |
50.1 |
-0.8 |
41.1 |
6.0 |
52.9 |
35.2 |
Q3:2019-20 |
775 |
26.4 |
22.9 |
50.8 |
3.5 |
37.3 |
15.6 |
47.1 |
21.7 |
Q4:2019-20 |
860 |
31.6 |
15.8 |
52.6 |
15.7 |
35.8 |
13.2 |
50.9 |
22.6 |
Q1:2020-21 |
802 |
8.3 |
68.5 |
23.2 |
-60.2 |
38.6 |
10.4 |
50.9 |
28.2 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
41.0 |
25.3 |
33.6 |
15.7 |
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. |
Table 23: Business Sentiments |
Quarter |
Business Assessment Index (BAI) |
Business Expectations Index (BEI) |
Q1:2019-20 |
108.4 |
113.5 |
Q2:2019-20 |
92.5 |
112.8 |
Q3:2019-20 |
93.0 |
102.2 |
Q4:2019-20 |
102.2 |
105.0 |
Q1:2020-21 |
55.3 |
108.8 |
Q2:2020-21 |
|
99.5 |
|