Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 09 Corporate Pricing Power, Inflation and IIP Growth: An Empirical Investigation @Angshuman Hait, Joice John, Abhiman Das and Anujit Mitra Abstract 1Pricing power measures the extent to which a business can pass on the increases in input costs to consumers through increases in the prices of finished goods. The corporate pricing power in India has declined since 2009-10:Q1. Production has also fallen sharply since 2010-11:Q3.

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 08 Macroprudential Regulation and Bank Performance: Evidence from India @Saibal Ghosh Abstract: 1Employing data on Indian banks for 1992-2012, the article examines the impact of macroprudential measures on bank performance. First, it finds that state-owned banks tend to have lower profitability and soundness than their private counterparts. Next, it tests whether such differentials between state-owned and private banks are dr

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 07 Size of Government Expenditure Multipliers in India: A Structural VAR Analysis @Rajeev Jain and Prabhat Kumar Abstract 1A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework has been used to estimate the size of government multiplier at the level of Central and the State governments in India. As a priori expected, capital outlay is found to be more growth inducing than the revenue expenditure. Since the revenue expenditure a

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India@Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam and Asish Thomas George Abstract *Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been increasingly used by various central banks for assessing the direction and strength of economic activity. One of the sub-indices or component level information provided by PMI is that of industrial input and outp

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 05 Persistence of Informal Credit in Rural India: Evidence from ‘All-India Debt and Investment Survey’ and Beyond @Narayan Chandra Pradhan Abstract *Rural credit markets in India is characterised by the coexistence of both formal and informal sources of finance and the market is fragmented. To discuss the informal rural credit issue and to maintain consistency with All India Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS) data, this pape

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 04 Financial Development and Monetary Policy Transmission Across FinancialMarkets: What Do Daily Data tell for India?1@Partha Ray and Edwin Prabu This paper seeks to address two questions In Indian context. First, what is the nature of integration among different segments of Indian financial markets? Second, what has been the influence of monetary policy on different segments of financial markets? As far as domestic financial

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Estimation of Counterfeit Currency Notes in India – Alternative Methodologies@Sanjoy Bose and Abhiman Das Abstract 1Alternative methodologies on estimation of counterfeit notes in the system, attempted by various countries, mostly pertain to proportions based on reported numbers vis-à-vis total figure on currency in circulation, which are having certain obvious limitations. As against, this paper suggests a probability mod

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Financial Structures and Economic Development in India: An Empirical Evaluation @Satyananda Sahoo "Finance is, as it were, the stomach of the country, from which all the other organs take their tone." - William Ewart Gladstone, 1858 Abstract 1The paper empirically evaluates the role of financial structures in economic development of India. An assessment of various indicators of financial development reveals that both the

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Banking Stability - A Precursor to Financial Stability@Rabi N. Mishra, S. Majumdar and Dimple Bhandia Abstract *This paper focuses on constructing a Banking Stability Map and Indicator and deducing the linkages with the financial markets and macroeconomic variables. In addition, an attempt has been made to establish the direction of causality between stability of the banking sector and overall financial stability. We attem

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 18 Estimating Impacts of Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand in India@Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam Abstract 1Using a structural VAR model on quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2011Q1, this paper estimated the impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand in India. The overall impact on aggregate demand is then decomposed to observe the differential impact among the various components. It finds that an interest rate hike has a signific

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 17 Asset Liability Mismatches1 (ALMi) in the Indian Banking Sector – The Extent, Persistence and Reasons2 @Rakhe P.B. 3High growth observed in infrastructure loans during the recent years prompted the study to analyse the ALMi positive gap of the banking sector. During the period under study, March 2006 to September 2010, the banking sector reported ALMi positive gap to the extent of 14 per cent of long-term assets indicating

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 16 Sustainable Level of India’s Current Account Deficit@Rajan Goyal* The paper estimates sustainable level of current account deficit (CAD) for India by applying a model akin to `Domar’s Model of Debt Sustainability’ to the threshold level of net external liabilities that economy should not breach to ensure stability of the external sector. Probit analysis based on a select panel of market economies was used to arrive at the

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 15 Sovereign Debt Management and Monetary Policy in India: An Empirical Investigation of Conflict of Interest Argument @Sunil Kumar and N.R.V.V.M.K. Rajendra Kumar Abstract *Based on the conflict of interest argument, separation of SDM from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has often been suggested, as both these functions vest with RBI. The main thrust of this argument is that cost minimisation for government’s market borrowing p

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 13 Fiscal Stance, Credibility and Inflation Persistence in India @Pankaj Kumar and Pratik Mitra Abstract †In the recent past India has experienced high and persistent inflation. In response the Reserve Bank of India cumulatively raised the cash reserve ratio by 100 basis points and the policy rate (repo rate) by 375 basis points between January 2010 and October 2011. Despite these policy actions, the inflation rate however c

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 14: Determinants of Liquidity and the Relationship between Liquidity and Money: A Primer @A.K. Mitra and Abhilasha *The term liquidity is varyingly used signifying financial flows of various kinds, ranging from that originating from the central bank to the overall existent financing available in the banking system. By analysing the impact that central bank actions and autonomous factors such as government financial flows, for

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 11 Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box@Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam and Rajeev Jain Abstract 1Using SVAR models on quarterly data for 1996-97:1 to 2011-12:1, the paper examines the relative importance of various transmission channels of monetary policy to GDP growth and inflation in India. It finds that external exogenous factors prolong the impact of monetary policy transmission on GDP growth and i

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 12 Countercyclical Capital Buffer Guidance for India@Tulasi Gopinath and A.K. Choudhary* Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has published its guidance for operating the countercyclical capital buffer. It has, inter alia, recommended that credit-to-GDP ratio could be the buffer guide. This paper argues that BCBS buffer guide is not suitable for India and showcases an alternative buffer guide, reflecting their underl

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 10 Systemic Liquidity Index for India @Rabi N. Mishra, G. Jagan Mohan and Sanjay Singh Abstract *Stress in liquidity is at the heart of any banking crisis in history. During the financial crisis of 2007-09, funding liquidity risk caused the collapse of interbank markets, which became the focus of authorities’ attention at restoring order. Accordingly, central banks and other regulatory bodies world-wide have been evolving pru

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 09 Monetary Transmission Mechanism in India: A Quarterly Model@Muneesh Kapur and Harendra Behera 1This paper examines monetary transmission mechanism for India in the context of a small macro model using quarterly data. Given the volatility emanating from the agricultural sector, the paper models both overall growth and overall inflation as well as non-agricultural growth and non-food manufactured products inflation, i.e., c

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 08 Volatility Transmission in the Exchange Rate of the Indian Rupee @Satyananda Sahoo Abstract 1The paper analyzes volatility spillovers from the exchange rates of the Brazilian Real, the Russian Ruble, the South Korean Won, the Singapore Dollar, the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, the British Pound Sterling and the Euro to the exchange rate of the Indian Rupee during 2005-11. The study employs a two-step multivariate GARCH fr