Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 Capital Structure, Ownership and Crisis: How Different Are Banks? @Saibal Ghosh and Goutam Chatterjee Abstract 1Employing data for 1992-2012, the article examines the factors affecting the capital structure of publicly listed Indian banks from a corporate finance perspective and compares the findings by exploiting a comparable sample of largest (based on their average market capitalization of last three years) non-financia

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 05 Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty @Harendra Kumar Behera, Sitikantha Pattanaik and Rajesh Kavediya Abstract *The constant natural interest rate assumption implicit in Taylor type feedback rules to assess the stance of monetary policy could be misleading at times, particularly because of the time- varying nature of the natural interest rate. Literature suggests that na

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 04 Is Exchange Rate The Dominant Factor Influencing Corporate Profitability in India? @Shaoni Nandi, Debasish Majumder and Anujit Mitra Abstract 1 Profitability of the non-financial private corporates is one of the key indicators of the macroeconomic activities and financial health of a nation. In India, list of major factors influencing profitability has altered over time. In particular, the gradual opening up of the econo

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Inter-sectoral Linkages in the Indian Economy @Rajib Das, Binod B. Bhoi, Pankaj Kumar and Krittika Banerjee Abstract 1The paper develops a series of structural equations outlining relations within and across sectors of the macro-economy in India. The economy is conceived as a network of five sectors, the output (GDP and its components), prices (WPI and its components), monetary (money supply and interest rates), governme

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Public Debt Management in India and Related Issues @L. Lakshmanan & R. Kausaliya Abstract *The public debt management in India has clearly traversed from a passive system to a market driven process with developed institutions, instruments, widespread investors, intermediaries for market making and efficient market infrastructure. Towards the PDM objective of minimising the cost of borrowing over the medium to longer t

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Estimating Sacrifice Ratio for Indian Economy – A Time Varying Perspective @Pratik Mitra, Dipankar Biswas and Anirban Sanyal Abstract *This paper estimates sacrifice ratios for the post liberalization period for India. ‘Sacrifice Ratio’ is defined as the loss of output sustained by the economy to achieve reduction in the long-run inflation by one percentage point. Deriving sacrifice ratio by estimating Aggregate Supply Cur

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 11 Forecasting Major Macroeconomic Variables in India – Performance Comparison of Linear, Non-linear Models and Forecast Combinations @Anirban Sanyal and Indrajit Roy Abstract 1 This paper adopts linear, non-linear time series models along with forecast combination (of linear and non-linear) for forecasting major macroeconomic variables (Monthly series of Index of Industrial production –IIP and quarterly series of GDP) in res

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 10 Analytics of Food Inflation in India @Thangzason Sonna, Dr. Himanshu Joshi, Alice Sebastian and Upasana Sharma Abstract *Food inflation in India has remained stubborn in recent years. A number of proximate factors such as increasing demand particularly arising from higher rural wages, rising agricultural cost of production, changing consumption pattern favoring protein items, increases in minimum support prices (MSPs) and

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 09 Business Cycles Approach to Dynamic Provisioning: An Indian Case Study @Tulasi Gopinath and Thangjam Rajeshwar Singh Abstract There is a broad consensus in the literature that the financial system is procyclical in nature. The procyclicality of the financial system accentuates the phases of booms and busts of the business cycle with severe spillover implications for the real economy. In the wake of the recent global financ

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 08 A Financial Conditions Index for India @Anand Shankar 1Financial market variables contain information about the future state of the economy. Changes in financial variables often translate into changes in the real economy. Very often financial variables send contradictory signals to economic agents. Further, acute information asymmetry exists in financial markets especially around trigger events during times of crises. Brea

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 07 Debt Sustainability at the State Level in India@Balbir Kaur, Atri Mukherjee, Neeraj Kumar and Anand Prakash Ekka Abstract *The debt position of the state governments in India, which deteriorated sharply between 1997-98 and 2003-04, has witnessed significant improvement since 2004-05, reflecting the impact of both favourable macroeconomic conditions and policy efforts by the Central and state governments. The debt sustainab

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 Estimating Employment Elasticity of Growth for the Indian Economy@Sangita Misra and Anoop K Suresh Abstract 1This paper provides updated estimates on employment elasticity - both aggregate as well as sector specific - using a variety of approaches. The aggregate employment elasticity estimates for India have declined over the decades and vary from 0.18 (arc elasticity) to 0.20 (point elasticity) during the post reform per

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 5 Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Use-Based Industrial Production in India @Alice Sebastian, Upasana Sharma, Thangzason Sonna and Dr. Himanshu Joshi Abstract 1Theoretically, it is assumed that exchange rate volatility increases risk and hence dampens economic activity through well identified channels. Internationally, there have been empirical evidences in this regard that lent support to the adverse effect of exch

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 04 Quantifying the Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Stance for India @Sangita Misra and Saurabh Ghosh Abstract Taking cue from recent debate in the literature, we attempt to disentangle cyclically adjusted fiscal balance (CAB) for India using methodology recommended by the IMF manual and a range of potential output estimates. Our results indicate that after initial success in containing CAB, it has increased considerably during the

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Re-emerging Stress in the Asset Quality of Indian Banks: Macro-Financial Linkages @Shashidhar M. Lokare Abstract 1In a bank-based economy, sound health of the banking system is an imperative for efficient financial intermediation in the context of overall development and financial stability. In the post- global crisis period, the Indian banking system, has suffered growing impairment of asset quality. This paper explores t

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 2 Net Stable Funding Ratio – An Estimate for Scheduled Commercial Banks in India @P. Bhuyan & A.K. Srimany Abstract 1Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) are two new liquidity ratios introduced by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) to address the problem of liquidity in the aftermath of the crisis that began in 2007. While the LCR tells about resiliency of a bank in short term, NS

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Global Liquidity, Financialisation and Commodity Price Inflation @Kumar Rishabh and Somnath Sharma Abstract 1 We review the role of the factors, identified in the literature, behind the global commodity inflation, viz. emerging market demand, speculation led by financialisation and easy global liquidity. This paper contributes to the existing literature on the issue in two ways. First, following BIS (2011), the distinctio

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 11 Non Deliverable Forward and Onshore Indian Rupee Market: A Study on Inter-linkages@Rajan Goyal, Rajeev Jain and Soumasree Tewari Abstract 1The study examines the inter-linkages of onshore segments of India’s foreign exchange market with Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDF) market for Indian rupee (INR) for a sample period of June 6, 2006 to April 3, 2013. The study period is divided into four sub-periods based on appreciating/de

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 10 Net Interest Margin, Financial Crisis and Bank Behavior: Experience of Indian Banks @Tushar B. Das Abstract 1The global financial crisis that jeopardized the advanced economies is perceived to have had a limited impact on Indian banking system. However, the effect was so severe that the advanced economies are still struggling to achieve stability. In this paper, we attempted to analyze the impact of the financial crisis o